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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Greece is a Sideshow. U.S. is the Main Event – Ep.89

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff

Business, Politics, News, Business News, Investing

4.65.9K Ratings

🗓️ 23 June 2015

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary


* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit"
* Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side
* As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems
* So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt
* The same is true for cuts to government spending
* The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table
* Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country
* All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend
* The markets are higher - the euro down big
* The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit
* In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong
* Given the electorate, this move is unlikely
* Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money
* The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week
* The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations
* Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast
* Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates
* Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market
* Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession
* May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations
* X transportation met recently reduced expectations
* Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths
* Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013
* Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations
* Home ownership rate continues to fall
* Rents are rising
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Transcript

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0:00.0

Well, it looks like there is going to be some kind of a deal with Greece to avoid the

0:15.1

Greggs it, where Greece exists the Eurozone, bandens the Euro currency for some kind of

0:22.5

resurrected form of the Drakma and of course defaults on debt.

0:27.6

Now I've said many times that that's probably the best thing to happen to Europe is to

0:32.6

kick out the weakest link in the chain, but I also didn't think that was going to happen

0:37.9

because I didn't believe politically that there would be the motivation to do that either

0:42.6

in Europe or in Greece.

0:44.2

And if you remember of course the current Greek government got elected by promising to

0:48.7

bring an end to austerity, and I said at the time that they're not going to do that because

0:53.4

if they actually left the Eurozone then the economic problems would get worse and the

1:00.0

Greeks would have no one to blame but the current government.

1:03.3

As long as they stay in the Eurozone they can continue to blame Brussels or Germany for

1:10.0

their problems and that's exactly what they've done.

1:13.8

The austerity or the so-called austerity is going to continue.

1:18.4

We don't know all the details, the specific details of this deal.

1:22.0

Who knows maybe it won't even come to fruition but the markets are certainly acting as if

1:26.5

it will but it doesn't involve any haircuts, any additional haircuts on Greek debt.

1:31.9

The Greeks still have to repay in theory the money that they borrowed and the austerity

1:36.4

is still there at least as it's been described.

1:39.8

Now there are no significant cuts or maybe even any actual cuts to government spending.

1:44.9

I think what I've read is that Greek taxpayers will have to contribute more towards their

1:50.2

own pensions but that might be scored as a tax hike more than a spending cut because

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