Graham Secker: European Equities Take a Turn Toward the Micro
Thoughts on the Market
Morgan Stanley
4.8 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 15 June 2021
⏱️ 3 minutes
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Summary
Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Sekker, head of Mongastani's European and |
| 0:06.2 | UK equity strategy team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll |
| 0:11.0 | be talking about our latest thoughts on European equities, and why we see further out performance |
| 0:15.4 | from the region over the second half of the year. It's Tuesday, June 15th at 3pm in |
| 0:20.2 | London. Over our last couple of podcasts, we've been |
| 0:23.5 | arguing that investors have been under appreciating the investment case for European equities, particularly |
| 0:28.2 | in light of the improving macro backdrop as the region reopens and economic activity |
| 0:32.5 | rebounds. In recent weeks, it is becoming apparent that more investors are beginning to positively |
| 0:37.4 | re-appraise their view on the region, and we are now seeing a healthy increase in equity |
| 0:41.2 | flows, which are running at their best levels in three years. A particular encouragement |
| 0:45.3 | are an increase in inflows from US-based investors, who tend to provide a healthy, marginal bid |
| 0:50.0 | for European stocks, boosting both absolute performance and general liquidity considerations. |
| 0:55.6 | With global investors structurally underweight Europe, there is ample scope for the recent |
| 0:59.1 | run of inflows, which should be counted in weeks rather than months, to persist for considerably |
| 1:03.6 | longer if the investment narrative remains attractive. In this context, it is important |
| 1:07.8 | to highlight that today, Marx's significant historical moment for European capital |
| 1:12.2 | markets, with the region issuing its first joint liability EU bonds as part of the EU Recovery |
| 1:18.2 | Fund that was agreed last year. IE, this vehicle is now effectively live, and these new bonds |
| 1:23.4 | represent a large and permanent Euro-denominated asset class. The proceeds from these bonds |
| 1:28.7 | could start to flow into individual nation's coffers over the next one to two months, ultimately |
| 1:33.4 | supporting the longer-term economic outlook over the next few years. Given the broader MS |
| 1:38.0 | macro team has recently taken a more subdued view on global risk assets recently, we consider |
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