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Naval

Good Explanations Are Hard to Vary

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 26 March 2021

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Transcript: http://nav.al/vary

Transcript

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0:00.0

Brett, would you say that a scientific theory is a subset of a good explanation?

0:03.6

Yes, they are the testable kinds of good explanations.

0:07.0

Forceifiable theories are actually a dime a dozen.

0:10.3

This doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the explanation you're being given.

0:15.0

The example that's used in the fabric of reality is the grass cure for the common cold.

0:19.7

If someone comes along to you and says, if you eat 1.0 kilograms of grass, it will cure

0:25.3

your common cold.

0:26.9

They have a testable theory.

0:28.7

The problem is that no one should test it.

0:31.7

Why?

0:32.7

Because they haven't given you an explanation as to what the mechanism is that would enable

0:38.2

grass to cure the common cold.

0:40.4

If you do eat the 1.0 kilograms of grass and it doesn't cure your cold, they can turn

0:46.2

around and say, hmm, 1.1 kilograms might do it.

0:49.7

Right.

0:50.7

Or you need a different kind of grass or you need to always do it on a different day.

0:54.2

It's always testable, but you're not getting anywhere.

0:56.3

You're not making any progress.

0:57.7

I think the second piece of good explanation is hard to vary.

1:00.5

It has to be very precise and there has to be a good reason for the precision.

1:04.2

The famous example he used in the beginning of infinity is the why do we have seasons

1:08.1

on the earth?

...

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