Goldman's Jan Hatzius on the Lessons Learned in 2020
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 28 December 2020
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
2020 has been an absolutely extraordinary year for the economy. In March, we saw the fastest economic contraction in history with an extraordinary surge in unemployment. Now, as the year closes out, we've had a housing boom, an extraordinary rise in financial assets, and unemployment has fallen much faster than most people expected. We spoke about this with Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs. We talked about the lessons learned, inflation, the outlook for 2021, his sectoral balances framework for analyzing the economy, and MMT.
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| 0:43.0 | I'm Joe Weisenthall. |
| 0:46.0 | And I'm Tracy Alaway. |
| 0:48.0 | So I don't know about you, Tracy, but I would definitely say that when the crisis hit earlier this year and the |
| 0:56.2 | stock market crashed and layoff surged, I definitely got pretty intense flashbacks to the Great Recession the financial crisis 10 years ago. |
| 1:07.0 | Yeah, I mean I think a lot of people did. |
| 1:10.0 | I think there were the big debate that was going on at the time was whether or not 2008 or 2020 was going to be like the defining financial crisis for a particular group of people. |
| 1:24.8 | And I think that debate's still going on, but for sure, like we've never seen anything quite like this, and in March we had a financial crisis alongside |
| 1:37.6 | a real economy crisis with lots of businesses going into lockdown and things like that. |
| 1:42.8 | And I think that was probably the major difference |
| 1:45.2 | with what we saw in 2008. |
| 1:47.4 | Right. |
| 1:47.7 | And I think now in December 2020, and looking at the aftermath we can say safely that so far anyway the |
| 1:57.8 | aftermath of what we experienced in March in April has really been nothing like the |
| 2:02.4 | financial crisis of course we have stocks not just at all |
| 2:05.8 | time highs but well above the pre-crisis highs already home prices there's a housing boom happening which probably not a lot of people |
| 2:15.1 | would have guessed. You know the unemployment rate it's still quite elevated but |
| 2:19.4 | it's come down a lot faster than a lot of people anticipated so that another sort of |
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