Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.4 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 27 November 2023
⏱️ 49 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Going into 2023, the conventional wisdom was that a recession was likely in store. Instead, it didn't happen. What we saw is continued disinflation, even as the economic growth and the labor market have remained robust. Now going into 2024, there's growing optimism that a soft landing can be achieved. Stocks have been rallying, rates have been falling, and there's a widespread view that the Fed is done hiking. So will this come to pass? On this episode, we speak to Jan Hatzius, the top economist at Goldman Sachs, about why so many people got 2023 wrong, and why he believes the soft landing is now within reach.
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| 0:45.0 | I'm Tracy Allaway. |
| 0:48.0 | Tracy I would say the last few weeks in a very real way I would say optimism over the soft landing scenario or at least the end of the raid hikes has become like deeply conventional wisdom I think. |
| 1:00.3 | I would agree with that although I think it sort of started in the summer. We saw some inklings |
| 1:05.8 | of it then, but you're right. It really seems to have crystallized in recent weeks. And of course the irony is that going |
| 1:11.4 | into 2023, the consensus was really for recession. |
| 1:16.6 | We had a number of people who were talking about the outlook for the economy this year |
| 1:21.8 | and how bad it might be. |
| 1:24.5 | And then going into 2024, |
| 1:26.3 | it seems like we've completely flipped around. |
| 1:28.2 | So the hills are alive with the sound of soft landings. |
| 1:32.0 | Yeah, and I think you're right, obviously 2023 |
| 1:35.4 | has broken a lot of people's brands. |
| 1:37.4 | Probably a broader theme, which |
| 1:39.5 | is that the entire COVID cycle, people have been looking at it through the lens of a |
| 1:45.4 | traditional business cycle or macro cycle and it feels like a lot of that just |
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