Welcome to Seeking Office Wall Street Lunch.

Our afternoon update on today's market action news and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Monday, August 14th, and I'm your your host Kim Khan. Our top story so far.

Goldman Sachs is penciled in a first fed rate cut to arrive in the second quarter

of 2024 but its economists are still leaving the door open for a higher for longer scenario.

Chief Economist Jan Hatzius says the base case is now for the cut to arrive sometime

between April and June next year, with the U.S. still avoiding a recession.

He says by then, core PCE inflation, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, will have fallen

below 3% on a year-on-year basis, and below 2.5% on a monthly annualized basis.

Wage growth is expected to have fallen below 4% year-on-year by that time.

The thresholds are cutting a line roughly with the the FMC's dot plot and conditions at the outset of the last cutting cycle which was motivated by an intent to normalize from a restrictive policy stance as inflation came down in 1995. The threat to the scenario is that

inflation simply doesn't come down enough. The other reasons the FOMC might not cut

include GDP growth above potential,

the unemployment rate still pushing below its 50-year low,

and financial conditions easing on enthusiasm about a soft landing.

On the equity side, Goldman is sticking with above consensus EPS growth in

2023 and 2024 with Q2 numbers coming in. Consumer discretioni saw the best

earnings growth for Q2 and energy brought up the rear.

Next year communication services and Infotech are expected to post the biggest growth in the bottom line.

And now I look at today's trading.

Stocks are struggling for firm direction and action could be choppy

through the session. The SMP 500 and Nasadak are slightly higher and the Dow is off a little.

...