GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 15 October 2025
⏱️ 61 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld
05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?
11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?
18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar
27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?
29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?
34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?
36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically
39:16 - A fork in the road for the Fed
47:19 - From problem to crisis
51:32 - Is Obstfeld optimistic about AI?
53:06 - The end of the neoliberal era - what comes next?
58:00 - Advice for other investors
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You know, again, this is an area where I think there are a lot of risks that haven't been carefully considered and where, you know, |
| 0:14.0 | governments outside the U.S. are quite alarmed about the, you know, the possible incursions into their domestic payment systems |
| 0:24.4 | and haven't quite figured out how to react. But, you know, I certainly thinking hard about |
| 0:32.1 | the risks that might be posed. And again, I think this could be another source of fragmentation going |
| 0:37.3 | forward. |
| 0:39.9 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their |
| 0:45.0 | experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, |
| 0:52.6 | the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:01.0 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:05.0 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything |
| 1:12.1 | about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss |
| 1:16.6 | with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks |
| 1:21.3 | from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:25.8 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:35.3 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
| 1:43.5 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, |
| 1:47.2 | as well as intellectually challenging, |
| 1:49.4 | but also very important, |
| 1:51.0 | given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. |
| 1:56.3 | We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most prominent experts |
| 2:00.0 | to help us better understand |
| 2:01.4 | what this new global macro-driven world may look like. |
... |
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