GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 6 November 2024
⏱️ 62 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Stephen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations
27:26 - The state of the labour...
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | There's not really an alternative. |
| 0:08.0 | Like where else, you know, where else are they going to keep their money? |
| 0:11.0 | You know, there's gold market's not big enough. |
| 0:13.0 | And, you know, like even the flows that we've seen so far have sent gold, you know, soaring, right? |
| 0:18.0 | There's nothing that's big and deep enough, you know, and something, |
| 0:21.6 | you know, something like a lot of these crypto assets have built, have deflation built into |
| 0:25.9 | them where the supply declines over time, right? And so that's not really suitable to something |
| 0:31.6 | where you need an increasing supply to fund increasing transactions and savings, the way |
| 0:35.6 | treasury market increases over time. |
| 0:42.2 | So without an alternative, they're sort of stuck. They'd love nothing less than to stop using the dollar in the treasury, but they're stuck. They have no, no choice. |
| 0:47.1 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their |
| 0:52.0 | experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. |
| 0:57.3 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers |
| 1:02.5 | in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:08.1 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:11.6 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance |
| 1:16.6 | does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's |
| 1:21.6 | a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request |
| 1:26.6 | and understand the specific risks |
| 1:28.4 | from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:32.9 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:42.6 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.