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Top Traders Unplugged

GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 7 February 2024

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term. 

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald

06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?

13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?

20:43 - Where are the weak spots?

23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?

27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy

39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?

51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?

53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?

59:35 - Advice

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

We are in this sizable shift where governments will become bigger.

0:13.0

And it's the governments that recognize their job is to support the supply side

0:18.0

that will actually support disinflation and bring prices in line and actually probably

0:23.0

allow their economies to accelerate. It's not going to be about how big is your deficit or how big

0:28.6

is your government. It's going to be have they made the critical shift towards rebuilding the

0:33.8

supply side of their economy or not. And it's not going to be the amount of dollars of government spent that will be most important to the inflation or growth story.

0:43.3

It's going to be how they spent it, which has always been true.

0:46.3

But the idea that government spending could be deflationary, I mean, people are probably turning your podcast off right now, Alan, as I say that, but is a new

0:55.8

theory that we need to consider.

0:59.2

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their

1:04.2

experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the

1:13.4

best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment

1:18.2

career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in

1:23.5

mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past,

1:27.9

and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also

1:33.1

understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies,

1:37.6

and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager

1:41.7

about their product before you make investment decisions.

1:45.0

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson.

1:54.8

Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses

1:59.0

on markets and investing from a global macro perspective.

2:02.9

This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging,

...

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