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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Global transit & trade: in rough waters

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 19 March 2024

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Transit on the seas — the planet’s most important means of trade — has become more fraught amid geopolitical and climate-related disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea. In this episode, which is based on Goldman Sachs Research’s Top of Mind report, Admiral James Stavridis and DHL Group's CEO Tobias Meyer discuss the factors driving maritime risks today and the threats to global trade.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Transit on the seas, the planet's most important means of trade, has become more fraught and undersea infrastructure more vulnerable amid numerous geopolitical and climate-related developments.

0:11.0

This is especially the case in the Red Sea today as the conflict in Gaza drags on.

0:16.2

I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. Every month I speak with investors, policymakers, and academics about the most pressing market-moving issues for our top-of-mind report

0:34.8

from Goldman Sachs research. On this episode I'll share parts of my conversations

0:39.2

with two experts featured in our latest report that breaks down maritime risks today

0:44.5

and the threat to global trade. Admiral James Stavridis, a retired four-star US

0:49.2

naval officer and former Supreme Allied commander of NATO and Tobias Mayor, the CEO of leading and

0:53.3

former Supreme Allied commander of NATO and Tobias Mayor, the CEO of leading

0:55.0

logistics firm DHL group.

0:57.0

Admiral Stavridis and I first discuss just how important and fraught the seas are today.

1:02.3

Here's our conversation. Walk us through how control of

1:07.0

the oceans really shapes geopolitical power in the world. Let's start with a British Royal Navy expression, which is the sea is one, meaning that it connects everywhere.

1:22.0

And if you look at a globe of the world,

1:25.2

only 30% of it is land.

1:28.1

70% is the ocean.

1:30.3

And 70% by the way of the oxygen your breathing comes from photosynthesis in the sea.

1:39.0

So water defines this planet in so many ways and to the commercial world 95% of

1:47.2

internationally traded goods go by sea and that is because of weight, density, low friction. Think of the difference

1:57.6

between trucking and training and flying as opposed to gliding across the surface of the sea.

2:06.0

The salient thing for us as we look at this network of global trade

2:11.0

is that everything I've said so far is good news. Here's the bad news.

2:16.5

The bad news is at a variety of places around the globe we find global choke points.

...

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