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In the words of the Chinese saying, we are cursed to live in interesting times,

a moment when the risks of global conflict, largely frozen for half a century,

seem greater than in most of our lifetimes.

To assess these risks, the briefing room is broadcasting

a series of programmes examining the most likely arenas of conflict and asking what are the chances

of a conflagration in each. The three we've chosen are the South China Sea, where there's

renewed talk of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Then there's the European border of Russia, where there's renewed talk of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Then there's the European border of Russia, where Putin's Ukrainian adventure could spill over

into neighbouring countries, members of NATO.

But first today, the Middle East, where it's 10 months since the Hamas attack on Israel,

started a bloody war.

Last week, Hamas leader Ismail Hania was assassinated in Tehran. Iran has vowed revenge. Could Iran and Israel be going to war?

And what might happen if they do? Step inside the briefing room and together we'll find out.

To help me understand this dangerous time,

I'm joined by Shashank Jashi, the Economist Defence Editor,

Professor Lena Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute

at Soas University of London,

and Dr Berger Erzchelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security

in the International Security Department

at the Royal

United Services Institute. Shashank Joshi, if I can start with you, just take us through

...