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editor-in-chief. This is FP Live. Welcome to the show. We are at a turning point.

You often hear that line from U.S. President Joe Biden, but this time those words are actually not

those of a politician. It's the first sentence in a new essay in foreign policy by Gita Gopinath,

the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. She makes the case that as countries

look to de-risk and Frenchore, to use the jargon of the moment, trade is fragmenting. Not only that,

but it's fragmenting along the lines of who supports

which superpower, the United States or China. We're back to blocks, in other words, and it could

lead to a new Cold War. All of this comes amid a tricky time for the global economy, battered as

it's been since the pandemic. Central banks have

been trying to raise interest rates just enough to reduce inflation, but not so much so as to

cause a recession. And success in that juggling act is what economists call a soft landing. Something the

IMF says is quite possible this year. The IMF also

thinks, it turns out, that America's economy is doing very well to use Gopinat's words,

even if everyone doesn't feel it just yet. So is Russia's, despite the West's best attempts to

...