Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, April 30th, and I'm your host, Kim Kong. Our top story so far. The first look at Q1 growth came in shy of forecasts, while inflation remained firmly above target, but the labor market

delivered a once-and-a-half century surprise. Q1 GDP rose at a 2% annual rate, below the 2.2%

consensus, but up sharply from 0.5% in Q4, which was weighed down by the government shutdown.

Inflation accelerated. The quarterly PCE price index rose 4.5% above the 4.1% consensus and up from

2.9% in Q4. Core PCE increased 4.3%, also topping expectations. For March, Core

PCE rose 0.3% with the annual rate at 3.2%. The core PCE price index is currently

the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.

Oil prices tied to the Iran conflict boosted inflation pressures, while consumer spending growth

cooled. Mark Zandi of Moody said unless the war ends soon and oil prices fall materially,

growth in the current quarter could weaken and recession risks could rise.

Economist Joseph Russewellis called the data an

echo of what might have been, arguing that a huge tax cut and AI-led investment tailwinds have been

partially offset by what he described as an adverse supply shock from the Iran war. Markets reacted

quickly, Treasury yields reversed much of their post-fed gains, and Fed funds' futures shifted

back towards pricing and better odds of a rate cut this year, though the probability of

no move remains above 80%.

Meanwhile, the labor market surprised the upside, weekly jobless claims fell to 189,000 from

215, the lowest level since 1969 and well below the 213 forecast.

The four-week average declined to 207,500.

Pantheon Macros had the drop, which was broad-based across states,

hints that the labor market may have turned a corner, though one-week's data is not definitive.

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