Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, January 30th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story so far.

US GDP grew in an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4, down from the strong 3.1 pace in Q3, and lower than the 2.6%

consensus. Growth in consumer and government spending was partly offset by a decline in investment.

Inflation picked up some from Q3. PCE prices rose 2.3 on quarter versus 1.5% prior,

and core PCE prices increased 2.5% right in line with expectations and up from 2.2% prior. Joseph Rusuelis, RSM US chief economist, says firms accumulated

inventory during the final quarter of the year to avoid the expected tariffs in 2025,

providing a drag of 0.93% on GDP.

So X inventory and trade overall growth increased by 3.1%, which is a better barometer of the

direction of the economy given the uncertainties caused by the shifted trade policy that are

likely to arrive this year, he said. Pantheon Macro noted that the 7.8% drop in overall equipment investment is less terrible

than it looks, given that aircraft investment has swung even more wildly than usual of late

due to the Boeing strike that ran from mid-September to early November.

Wells Fargo economists say the numbers remind us it's not just actual policy, but the prospect

of such policies that can dictate economic behavior. To the extent year-end volatility is

tariff-related, we'd expect to see similar forces at play in the first quarter among continued

tariff threats, but any tariff pull forward will eventually be met with a lull in demand.

Further, while the macro impact from tariffs depends on the size and scope of tariffs implemented,

and a stronger dollar in elevated profit margins can help mitigate some of the cost impact,

tariffs will likely weigh on growth and boost inflation to some extent this year.

In today's trading, the initial unsurprising move after a weaker than expected GDP print of stocks up and yields down

unwound quickly. The major stock averages are slightly higher, with treasury yields a little changed.

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