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Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Gavin Baker - Nvidia v. Google, Scaling Laws, and the Economics of AI - [Invest Like the Best, EP.451]

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Colossus

Technology, Business, Investing

4.72.5K Ratings

🗓️ 9 December 2025

⏱️ 86 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

My guest this week is Gavin Baker. Gavin is the managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and he has been on the show many times before.  I will never forget when I first met Gavin in 2017. I find his interest in markets, his curiosity about the world to be as infectious as any investor that I've ever come across. He's encyclopedic on what is going on in the world of technology today, and I've had the good fortune to host him every year or two on this podcast. Gavin began covering Nvidia as an investor more than two decades ago, giving him a rare perspective on how the company – and the entire semiconductor ecosystem – has evolved. A lot has changed since our last conversation a year ago, making this the perfect time to revisit the topic. In this conversation, we talk about everything that interests Gavin – Nvidia’s GPUs, Google’s TPUs, the changing AI landscape, the math and business models around AI companies and everything in between. We also discussed the idea of data centers in space, which he communicates with his usual passion and logic. In closing, at the end of this conversation, because I've asked him my traditional closing question before, I asked him a different question, which led to a discussion of his entire investing origin story that I had never heard before. Because Gavin is one of the most passionate thinkers and investors that I know, these conversations are always amongst my most favorite. I hope you enjoy this latest in the series of discussions with Gavin Baker. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform. ----- This episode is brought to you by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:04:00) Meet Gavin Baker (00:06:00) Understanding Gemini 3  (00:09:05) Scaling Laws for Pre-Training (00:12:12) Google v. Nvidia (00:14:53) Google as  Lowest Cost Producer of Tokens (00:25:18)  AI Can Automate Anything that can be Verified (00:30:23) The AI Bear Case: Edge AI (00:33:43) Going from Intelligence to Usefulness (00:36:34) AI Adoption in Fortune 500 Companies (00:41:40) Frontier Models and Industry Dynamics (00:48:05) China’s Mistake and Blackwell’s Geopolitical Leverage (00:50:11) OpenAI’s Code Red (00:52:50) Data Centers in Space (00:58:00) Cycles in AI (01:01:14) Power as a Bottleneck (01:03:51) AI Native Entrepreneurs (01:05:41) Semiconductor VC (01:09:26) The Mistake the SaaS Industry is Making (01:14:53) Series of Bubbles (01:16:31) Whatever AI Needs, It Gets (01:17:53) Investing is the Search for Truth (01:18:37) Gavin’s Investing Origin Story

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Here's an interesting question to think about. If your finance team suddenly had an extra week every month, what would you have them work on?

0:05.9

Most CFOs don't know because their finance teams are grinding it out on lost expense reports, invoice coding, and tracking down receipts until the last possible minute.

0:13.7

That's exactly the problem that Ramps set out to solve. Looking at the parts of finance, everyone quietly hates and asking why are humans doing any of this?

0:21.7

Turns out they don't need to. Ramp's AI handles 85% of expense reviews automatically with 99%

0:27.8

accuracy, which means your finance team stops being the department that processes stuff and starts

0:32.6

being the team that thinks about stuff. Here's the real shift. Companies using Ramp aren't just

0:37.1

saving time. They're reallocating it. While competitors spend two weeks closing their books, you're already planning next quarter. While they're cleaning up spreadsheets, you're thinking about new pricing strategy, new markets, and where the next dollar of ROI comes from. That difference compounds. Go to ramp.com slash invest to try ramp and see how much leverage your team gains when the

0:55.9

work you have to do stops getting in the way of the work that you want to do. To me, Ridgeline

0:59.6

isn't just a software provider. It's a true partner in innovation. They're redefining what's

1:03.6

possible in asset management technology, helping firms scale faster, operate smarter, and stay ahead

1:08.3

of the curve. I want to share a real-world example of how

1:10.8

they're making a difference. Let me introduce you to Brian. Brian, please introduce yourself and tell

1:17.1

us a bit about your role. My name is Brian Strang. I'm the technical operations lead,

1:22.1

and I work at Congress Asset Management. How would you describe your experience working with

1:26.0

Ridgeline? Ridgeline is a technology partner, not a software vendor, and the people really care.

1:30.3

I get sales, calls all the time, and I ignore them. Ridgeline sold me very quickly.

1:35.3

We went from $7 billion to $23 billion, and the goal is $50 billion.

1:39.3

Ridgeline was the clear frontrunner to help us scale.

1:42.3

In your view, what most distinguishes Ridgeline?

1:45.6

They reimagined how this industry should work.

1:48.1

It's obviously they were operating on another level.

1:52.2

It's worth reaching out to Ridgeline to see what the unlock can be for your firm.

...

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