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Bulwark Takes

GasBuddy Expert Warns: This Oil Crisis Could Last Over a Year (w/ Patrick De Haan)

Bulwark Takes

The Bulwark

News, News Commentary, Politics, Society & Culture

4.71.1K Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2026

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tim Miller is joined by Gas Buddy's Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick De Haan for his take on the escalating oil crisis, surging gas prices, and why Americans could be feeling the effects for a long time. De Haan warns that every day the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted could mean weeks of recovery for global oil markets, potentially leading to a 65-week climb back to pre-crisis prices. He also predicts a July 4 “sticker shock” as rising diesel costs drive up prices on everything from gas to summer cookout staples. They break down why U.S. oil production can’t insulate Americans from global markets, how refinery problems are making things worse, and why this crisis could ripple through the entire economy.

Read more from Patrick's work: https://gaspriceguy.substack.com/

For a limited time, listeners can get an exclusive $25 off AuraFrame's best-selling Carver Matframe at https://on.auraframes.com/BULWARKTAKES with code BULWARKTAKES.

Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and Los Angeles in May: https://thebulwark.com/events

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:39.4

Hey, everybody. It's Tim Miller from the Bullwork. I'm delighted to welcome somebody on that I've been following religiously for the past, I don't know, 40 days or so. He's the head of petroleum analysis, a gas buddy. He's analyzed in tract oil markets and fuel prices for nearly two decades. You can find him on Substack at gasprice guy.com. It's Patrick DeHan. How you doing, man? Good to be with you. 40 days, huh, man? That seems like a long time ago. Loyal. I've been a loyal follower for 40 days. This is your moment in the sun, I guess, for better or worse, thanks to what's happening in Strait of Formos and elsewhere. Why, why you give people a little background on, you know, how you got into this, what it is that you're, what is that you're doing over there? Boy, I wish it was a moment in the sun, you know. I might not be as pasty white anymore.

0:47.6

You know, it's been a wild last couple months. I've been doing this for almost 20 years of gas buddy that is analyzing markets, looking at oil prices, telling our members of gas buddy,

0:53.5

whether or not price are going to go up or down and trying to really stay ahead of the information.

0:57.6

Of course, there's a lot of... looking at oil prices, telling our members a gas buddy whether or not price are going to go up or down

0:55.3

and trying to really stay ahead of the information. Of course, there's a lot of misinformation as well.

0:59.4

Everyone's a journalist these days. So trying to parse out all the details on what comes next.

1:04.0

And I can't believe we've been doing this for now nine weeks. So it's been a while.

1:08.1

That's crazy. So right before we got on, we have some breaking news, which is that brand crude prices are

1:13.3

surging above $119 a barrel at the time.

1:15.7

We're taping this on Monday late morning.

1:18.4

This was after UAE announces that there was an Iranian drone attack that hit one of their

1:23.2

petroleum facilities.

1:24.6

So that's kind of breaking.

1:25.9

I wonder if you have any kind of global thoughts

1:27.9

on maybe Iran starting to reengage here, but also I think just maybe some basics for our audience.

1:34.2

Like when you see things like Brent oil price going up, like what does that mean as compared to

1:39.0

some of the other stuff in the market? I mean, there's a lot to watch. I'm trying to look at the

1:42.9

headlines here, you know, even talking with you to see how bad it is. I mean, there's a lot to wash. I'm trying to look at the headlines here, you know, even talking

1:45.4

with you to see how bad it is. I mean, obviously a drone strike on UAE facilities would be about

1:51.1

as bad as it gets. You know, when we see these attacks, it's hugely impactful. More so from a

1:58.4

psychological standpoint of it re-escalates the situation.

2:03.6

You know, and after a period of calm, I mean, nerves are becoming unsettled whenever you see something like this and it's going to have a lasting impact.

...

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