Gary Shilling | Regulatory Reform and the Impact of the Trump Tax Plan on the U.S. Economy
Hidden Forces
Demetri Kofinas
4.8 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 18 December 2017
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In Episode 27 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist Gary Shilling, who famously called the bottom in what has become a 36-year bull market in US Treasuries, about the ramifications of Donald Trump's economic policies, the role of cryptocurrencies, and the prospect for stocks, commodities, and the dollar in 2018.
Few would reasonably argue that regulatory reform is not needed in the United States. The issue for politicians and policymakers has always been one of balance and practicality. The turbulence of the 1970's produced a slew of regulatory measures like wage and price controls that proved disastrous for the economy. Likewise, the financial deregulation of the 1980s and 1990s rolled back investor protections that had served to safeguard customer deposits and prevent excessive interconnectivity in the banking system.
In the context of the current economic expansion, one must consider the impact that deregulation and higher after-tax income will have on an economy already in its ninth year of economic expansion. With corporations and businesses standing to benefit most from tax cuts proposed by Senate and House Republicans, what do individual tax-filers stand to gain from the Trump tax plan? Are there benefits to rolling back some of the financial regulations passed in reaction to the fallout of the great financial crisis of 2008? What does the employment picture look like for the US economy? How do job prospects and wages fare in the face of rising asset values and growing debt burdens? If Gary Shilling is right and treasuries remain in a bull market, what does this mean for the fate of stocks, commodities, and the US dollar in 2018? Will the price of oil continue its recent rise, or may some combination of weak demand and oversupply hamper prices? How will the Federal Reserve's ongoing tightening affect the economy and are we destined to see an inversion of the yield curve for 10-year US Treasuries? Gary Shilling also gives us his two cents on bitcoin, and why he thinks the cryptocurrency is massively overvalued.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up everybody? |
| 0:01.0 | What's up everybody? What's up, every? everybody. Welcome to another episode of Hidden Forces with me, |
| 0:14.0 | Demedra Gaffinus. Today I speak with Gary Schilling, an economist, financial analyst and |
| 0:19.8 | commentator famous for the prescience of his forecasting, most notably having called the bottom |
| 0:25.8 | in what would become a 36-year and counting bull market in U.S. Treasuries. He is the author of numerous books, including his most recent The Age of the Leveraging, a strategic |
| 0:36.5 | manifesto for managing wealth during an epoch of deflation. |
| 0:41.6 | In this episode we take a look at the tax cuts being proposed and the regulatory changes being |
| 0:47.2 | enacted by the Trump administration. |
| 0:49.8 | We consider their impact on the economy, on growth and on equities as we hit into the ninth year |
| 0:55.4 | of an unusually long economic expansion. |
| 0:59.0 | What does the employment picture look like for the U.S. economy? |
| 1:02.0 | How do job prospects and wages fair in the face of rising |
| 1:05.6 | asset values and growing debt burdens? |
| 1:08.8 | If our guest is right and treasuries remain in a bull market, then what does this mean for the fate of stocks, |
| 1:14.3 | commodities, and the US dollar in 2018 and beyond? |
| 1:19.6 | As always, you can gain access to reading lists put together by me ahead of every |
| 1:24.3 | episode by visiting the show's website at Hidden Forces pod.com. |
| 1:29.6 | Lastly if you are listening to the show on your iPhone or Android, make sure to subscribe. |
| 1:35.6 | If you like the show, write us a review, and if you want a sneak peek into how the show is made |
| 1:40.6 | over special storylines told through pictures and questions, then like us on |
| 1:44.9 | Facebook and follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Hidden Forces Pod. And now |
| 1:50.8 | let's get right to this week's conversation. |
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