Future Expectations for This Year's Strikeout Rate Risers & Fallers
Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball
The Athletic
4.7 • 875 Ratings
🗓️ 9 August 2023
⏱️ 62 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Eno and DVR discuss Ronald Acuña Jr.'s massive improvement in strikeout rate as he continues to build a NL MVP resumé, and dig into other year-over-year risers and fallers in that category while trying to determine the future expectations for the biggest movers in both directions.
Rundown
0:49 Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Massive K% Improvement
7:50 The Value of a Good Two-Strike Approach
12:41 Other Hitters with Positive Gains in K%
18:37 Selling Out for Power
23:33 Giancarlo Stanton's xStats v. ROS Projections
29:32 Improved K% and Weight on Future Projections
33:47 Biggest Fallers in Strikeout Rate
38:28 Luis Robert Jr.: Making a Fair Trade-Off to Max Out Power?
46:58 Thairo Estrada's Uphill Battle to Stick in Everyday Role
49:28 Brett Baty's Demotion
55:34 xStats Remain Underwhelmed by Isaac Paredes
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Rates and barrels. It is Wednesday, August 9th, Derekman |
| 0:18.0 | Riper here with Inoceraris on this episode. We discuss Ronald |
| 0:22.0 | O'Cunia Jr., who appears to be running away with the NL MVP award year in 2023. We'll talk |
| 0:28.0 | about some of the improvements he has made, most specifically, a lower K rate than ever. We'll |
| 0:33.7 | dig into some other hitters that have made similar improvements, try to figure out how exactly that can happen. |
| 0:39.2 | This was inspired by a great Twitter question we received from one of our listeners. |
| 0:42.9 | So we'll look at some other risers and fallers in that category and time permitting, maybe a few mailbag questions as well. |
| 0:49.4 | Let's begin, though, with Ronald Acuna Jr. himself. |
| 0:52.2 | You know, you don't usually see someone cut their |
| 0:55.5 | K rate down to 12.2%. I mean, its previous low was last season, 23.6%. And maintain the |
| 1:04.3 | amount of power that Acuna has shown us this year. There's usually some kind of tradeoff. |
| 1:08.6 | He struck out less, not going to hit as many barrels, making some weak contact. Nope, not the case here. So I started doing some digging. |
| 1:16.5 | Look to the O swing percentage. Is he chasing less? Nope. He wasn't a bad chaser to begin with. |
| 1:21.3 | Hasn't changed that. Is he swinging differently? The overall overall swing volume. Nope. |
| 1:26.7 | 45.9% this year career, 45.4%. That's the same too. |
| 1:30.8 | But he's making a lot more contact and he's doing it everywhere, both inside and outside the |
| 1:37.1 | strike zone, which is just incredible improvement, which led me to a bunch of follow-up questions |
| 1:42.4 | that we're still sort of cobbling together answers to, |
| 1:45.0 | but is there a swing change? Is there an approach change? Is there a combination of those two things? |
| 1:50.2 | Is there a third factor, some sort of off-season training? Right. You've talked about |
| 1:54.5 | Donnie Ecker being a firm believer in training dirty, right? Is there something new that Acuna has |
| 2:00.2 | added in that's enabled |
... |
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