Finding 1,000x Assets & Asymmetric Returns | Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital

Bankless

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Tech News, News, Technology

4.8 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 23 December 2024

⏱️ 80 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

How do you find an asset with 1000x asymmetric return? How do you find the next bitcoin?

Our guest today is Dan Morehead, founder and managing director at Pantera Capital. He has been buying bitcoin since 2013 when the price was just $65. His fund is up over 100x since then.

There’s a lot to learn from Dan’s story, about early bitcoin history, but also the pattern recognition required to identify asymmetric assets. We cover price predictions, 4 year cycles vs a supercycle, how much upside is still in crypto, the trump administration and his thoughts on a strategic bitcoin reserve

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
6:00 The Email from 2013
14:15 Asymmetric Patterns
17:50 Buying Bitcoin in 2013
26:25 Onboarding Investors
32:12 Crypto's Global Adoption
37:15 Bitcoin's Escape Velocity
43:19 US Government Impact on Crypto
52:21 Global Bitcoin Race
56:14 Institutional Adoption for Crypto
1:04:37 Crypto Cycles
1:09:20 2025 Bull Market?
1:12:53 Macro Environment
1:16:50 Tokenization
1:21:18 Thoughts on AI
1:24:19 The Next Bitcoin
1:26:46 Future Plans
1:27:23 Closing & Disclaimers

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RESOURCES

Dan Morehead
https://x.com/dan_pantera

Pantera Capital
https://panteracapital.com/

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
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Transcript

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0:00.0	We should buy Bitcoin now at $65 from Dan Moorhead.
0:03.7	This email is dated July 5, 2013.
0:07.0	Your brief thoughts were, I'm going to buy 30,000 Bitcoins this weekend with personal money.
0:11.5	The fund can have this purchase or not as others which.
0:14.0	Give us the context in the lay of the land at that time when you wrote this.
0:17.0	Bitcoin's a serial killer.
0:19.0	It is going to rip through so many different industries.
0:22.6	But the only important part of that line is it will do it serially.
0:26.6	And the hard thing in our space is that it's not going to do it all overnight.
0:29.6	But it's probably going to take 10 years to compete with Visa MasterCard.
0:44.3	Welcome to Bankless, where today we explore the frontier of asymmetric assets. This is Ryan Sean Adams, just me here today. David is out, and I'm here to help you become more bankless.
0:50.3	The question for today's episode that I think you should be thinking about is,
0:54.7	how do you find an asset with a thousand X asymmetric returns, at least a profile for that?
1:00.1	How do you find something like Bitcoin early? Our guest today, Dan Moorhead, has made his career
1:05.7	on asymmetric investments. He's got this letter to investors from July 2013, and I think it's legendary.
1:12.8	The email subject line is titled in all caps, very timely. We should buy Bitcoin now at $65.
1:19.0	Over the next two years, his fund then proceeded to buy almost 2% of all the world's Bitcoin
1:24.2	supply. And at the time, this was a massively contrarian bet.
1:27.7	It was hard to raise the funds.
1:29.3	It was hard to even purchase the Bitcoin itself.
1:32.1	His fund is now up 1000x since then.
1:35.9	I think there's a lot to learn from Dan's story about early Bitcoin history,
	...

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