Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 11 April 2021

⏱️ 65 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Interview: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth. Recorded on February 11, 2021. Key learnings: Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk. He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:29.0	Thanks, my friend. Great to see you.
0:53.0	My pleasure, and thank you for having me, Raul.
0:56.0	It's a really complicated world out there.
0:58.0	So I wanted to pick your brains on what the hell you think is going on, where we are in this whole phase.
1:05.0	Because we seem to have restarted an economic cycle straight into a bubble, which is something unusual for us.
1:12.0	And so I want to see what you think this is.
1:15.0	Is this a bubble? What's really going on? How are you thinking about it?
1:18.0	What are your top level thoughts on this?
1:20.0	Well, we have certain signs of a bubble, the excesses in speculation, etc.
1:28.0	That is, late cycle material.
1:31.0	But at the same time, we have the economy that is slowly coming out of a recession and still pretty depressed.
1:39.0	So that's certainly not late cycle.
1:42.0	So it's a mixed bag.
1:43.0	You have certain industries that are in a deep recession depression, like travel and restaurants and event the industry.
1:52.0	While at the same time, you have semi-conductors running very hard with all sorts of shortages, etc.
2:02.0	It's a very mixed bag.
	...

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