Fed walking primrose path and cataclysmic scenarios with David Trainer
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 16 July 2023
⏱️ 13 minutes
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Show links:
Q2 2023 Earnings: Where Street Earnings Are Too High And Who Should Miss
2Q23 Earnings: Where Street Estimates Are Too Low And Who Should Beat
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | David trainer longtime |
| 0:08.0 | longtime Seeking Alpha contributor CEO of New Constructs an investment research firm. |
| 0:13.8 | Great to have them on talking the markets, |
| 0:16.1 | how investors should be thinking about navigating the markets. |
| 0:19.6 | Look for David Trainer's articles on Seeking Alpha. |
| 0:22.4 | Podcast episodes are available with |
| 0:24.7 | full transcripts on Seeking Alpha. Also any article mentioned in this |
| 0:29.4 | podcast will be available on the show notes which is in the episode description on whatever |
| 0:35.7 | podcast platform you may be listening to. Hope you enjoy today's conversation. |
| 0:40.4 | David welcome to Seeking Alpha. I'd love if you could update listeners on how you're |
| 0:47.7 | looking at the markets, how you're thinking about the markets these days. |
| 0:51.3 | Yeah, I think that for me, you know, despite all the sort of popular |
| 0:57.0 | narratives about this or that drive the market, I feel like for the near term it's really all about liquidity and how much either the Fed or the |
| 1:07.2 | Treasury are pumping into the economy. I've seen plenty of charts showing a very tight alignment |
| 1:15.1 | between hey if they're still putting money in stocks are going to be the animal |
| 1:21.0 | spirits are alive and well. |
| 1:23.7 | And when that liquidity begins to be drained, |
| 1:26.6 | or, you know, when the Treasury typically tends to sort of back off |
| 1:30.6 | and the feds tightening actually starts to take hold you see stocks retract and I think |
| 1:36.7 | that's a consistent theme for really most of the last 20 years the long-term decline in interest rates is effectively just put more money into circulation |
| 1:47.5 | and certainly lower the threshold for what would be a profitable investment and therefore made it easier to make money. |
| 1:57.0 | You know, that's what a lower cost of capital effectively does that. |
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