Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's

market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

Hello, today is Sunday, March 15th, and I'm your host, Kim Kong.

The Fed begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, where the rate decision

due Wednesday. But the economic backdrop looks dramatically different from a month ago.

Oil has surged amid the Iran conflict, inflation expectations are climbing, and yields are rising.

WTI crude futures are indicated open above $100 this week, up from just $63 a month ago,

after U.S. strikes on Iran's key export facility

at Karg Island intensified fears of supply disruption. Meanwhile, the 10-year treasure yield has

climbed roughly 20 basis points over the past month to 4.28%. For this meeting, markets are

pricing in a near certainty that rates stay on hold. And with energy prices spiking, traders are no

longer convinced

we'll see meaningful rate cuts this year, even with chair nominee Kevin Warsh pushing the White

House agenda for lower rates. Interest rate swaps tied to Fed meeting dates imply only about

20 basis points of easing by year end, according to Bloomberg data. So that's not even a full

quarter point cut. Fed funds futures still show about a 60% chance of at least one-quarter point cut by December.

Wall Street economists remain somewhat more dovish, though.

Goldman Sachs now expects the first cut in September, but still sees 50 basis points of easing by year-end.

Wells Fargo also projects two quarter-point cuts.

Though it cautions that the longer oil stays elevated, the harder that

becomes to achieve. This meeting will also include an updated summary of economic projections,

a.k.a. the dot plot. Wells Fargo expects it to tilt modestly stagnflationary,

...