Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, December 11th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story so far.

The latest retail inflation figures arrived as expected, on the sticky side, but that was just fine for equity

bulls as traders locked in their bets for a Fed rate cut next week. The November CPI is the last

major data point before the FOMC meets next week, and there were few surprises. The headline number

rose 0.3% on the month, matching the 0.3% consensus, and slightly accelerating from 0.2% in each of the previous

four months. That pushed the annual rate up to 2.7% from 2.6% as expected. The index for shelter

rose 0.3%, accounting for nearly 40% of the monthly all items increase. The food index climbs 0.4%

as the food at home index increased 0.4% as the food at home index increased

0.5% and the food away from home index rose 0.3%. The energy index rose 0.2% over the month

after being unchanged in October. The core CPI, X food and energy, also rose 0.3% on the month.

Annual core inflation stayed at 3.3%. Michael Kramer,

investing group leader of Mott Capital Management, noted that goods inflation accelerated in

November, rising by 0.3% from flat in October. The rise in goods inflation rose to its highest

level since May 2023, and will be something that needs to be launched closely in December,

as goods inflation has been trending higher since July. With no major surprises, the odds of a quarter-point

rate cut jumped from 86% to 97%. Raymond James Chief economist Eugenio Alamon says, prospects for a

continuation in the easing cycle are becoming more and more, well, data-dependent,

and the data has not been nice for the Fed lately.

Thus, we should expect next week's decision to be rationalized as a hawkish cut in rates.

Two more quarter points are currently priced in for the end of 2025.

Skyler Wynan, chief investment officer at Reagan Capital, says,

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