Threading the needle between recession and growth.

From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Beneshor, in for David Brancaccio.

The country's interest rates can make the difference between a growing economy and an economy

headed into recession.

Raising interest rates is like an economic, arctic blast, cooling the economy, but it also

helps fight inflation.

We are at the point where the decision on what the Federal Reserve should do next month

with interest rates is kind of a day-by-day calculation.

That Chair Jerome Powell's book yesterday at an Economic Club of New York luncheon and

gave some hints.

Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has that.

The Fed's playbook is Rais' interest rates to cool the economy and hopefully inflation,

but some parts of the economy are still hot.

Consumers spent more than expected last month, and companies are still hiring.

So Powell says,

Given the uncertainties and risks, and given how far we've come, the committee is

proceeding carefully.

That is, the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates.

Powell is also keeping his eye on the yield or return on the 10-year Treasury bond.

It's been going up, and it loosely tracks with rates for some loans, like mortgages.

So New York Life Investments economist Lauren Goodwin says the bond market has been pushing

up mortgage rates.

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