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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Fed Boosts Benchmark By 50 Basis Points

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2022

⏱️ 39 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed to raise the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points and to begin shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in June by $47.5 billion, with the runoff pace to reach a maximum of $95 billion per month after three months. The FOMC noted in its statement that “ongoing” increases to the fed funds target rate will be appropriate. The central bank’s quest now is to find some “neutral” rate of interest without tipping the economy into recession. “The last time the Fed made a 50-basis-point move was March 2000,” notes Darius Dale. “The dot-com bubble burst shortly thereafter, with the S&P 500 losing 50% and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 80% from 2000 peak to 2002 trough.” Equity indexes were mixed shortly after the FOMC announcement and shortly ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, the economy, and how the “smart money” is reacting to quarterly earnings reports. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3y9meHD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey there. Welcome to the Daily Briefing. It's Wednesday, May 4, 2022. A Maggie Lake in

0:10.2

here with me today is Darius Dale, founder of 42 macro. And wow, Darius, like this is

0:16.6

a move we are seeing after the Fed.

0:22.4

So it's a lot of stuff to unpack. I think it's a very, very important meeting in terms of the

0:26.6

kind of next six to nine months of a market activity. It's certainly well, let's catch everybody up

0:31.6

if you haven't been glued to your screens. So today, big Fed day, right, end of the two-day meeting,

0:37.6

they hiked 50 basins points as expected. But then Fed Chair Jay Powell came out and basically

0:44.2

ruled out any aggressive, said they're not actively considering more aggressive rate hikes. Basically

0:51.0

taking a 75 basis point rate hike for June off the table, which completely surprised the market.

0:58.0

The reaction was swift. And as you said, Darius, straight up, let's just walk through the numbers.

1:02.9

They're notable. The major US stock markets were just closing here, rally, 3% across the board.

1:09.5

The Dow up nearly a thousand points, the Nasak, 3.19%, the S&P 500 of 3%, it's best gain, I think,

1:18.5

since May 2020. If that holds the yields on the 10-year treasury bond, moving in the opposite

1:25.6

direction, back down to 2.92, backing all the way down from 3%. That's a big move of cryptocurrencies

1:32.4

rallying, risk on, and the VIX falling 13%. And again, we'll have to see if this holds. But just,

1:40.1

what did you make of the press conference? Because that seemed to be what really lit this thing going.

1:45.1

Yeah, absolutely. So anytime we have one of these sort of off-schedule FOMC meetings,

1:49.9

where we do not get a revised dot plot in summer, economic projections, really the whole market,

1:54.4

the whole world's global financial markets are hinging on one man's mouth. And he's made a couple

1:59.5

of comments. Obviously, you alluded to the 75 basis point rate hike being something they're not

2:04.8

actively considering. That kind of got things going. You remember that for the first kind of

2:08.4

little part of the press conference market or in chains, you were on edge looking for the signal.

...

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