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Hey, good morning, playbookers on Ruguinovalin. It's Monday. Today's show why a GOP

landslide in the midterms isn't so certain. This is your Politico Playbook Daily briefing.

The expected November election scenario is that Republicans take over the House and Senate.

On average, since 1946, the President's party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats

in a midterm election.

The traditional indicators still point to a typical midterm for Joe Biden, a low presidential

approval rating, a 42%, a two-point Republican average over Democrats on the generic ballot,

and more than twice as many Democrats are retiring from the House than Republicans.

But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers.

Maybe they can win the midterms.

Some recent developments have started to pierce the conventional wisdom about the pending GOP wave.

For example, when it comes to redistricting, catastrophic losses from partisan gerrymandering

that many Democrats feared have not materialized.

Despite vocal frustration with the process and pushing reform in Congress, Democrats did not unilaterally disarm.

The hyper-aggressive map recently released by New York Democrats

made it clear that the party may come out ahead in the process nationally. As Dave Wasserman

from the Cook Political Report noted, quote, there aren't many breaks attempts haven't caught

in redistricting so far. When it comes to the economy, inflation is still a top priority for

voters and the main obstacle to Biden receiving

higher marks on his handling of the economy. But unemployment is very low. Growth is strong,

and the latest jobs report was phenomenal. If inflation data released this Thursday shows a dip,

...