Hello, welcome to the FF fancy football podcast. I'm your host, Ian Harditz. And today we continue our fancy file series with a look at the worst case scenarios for every top 12 consensus ranked tight end.

If you haven't heard the quarterback running back sections of this and bite you to do so, basically we talk up every player seemingly in fancy football and throughout the offseason. I want to take a second and see where it could go wrong. So no, these are not my complete thoughts on these guys.

I just want to try to punch some holes and allow the optimism that's going around for seemingly everybody this time of the year. So I will not be relying on hey, this guy could get hurt. We'll try to do actual efficiency workload related potential pitfalls.

So without further ado, worst case scenarios for every top 12 tight end starts off with Travis Kelsey. I just think it's going to be age. He is only 144 days younger than Rob Gronkowski.

He didn't look at looking at worse for the wear in the act in 2020. I don't see a drop off coming. Even if it does, I can't imagine a system where you would age more gracefully than Patrick, my homes at quarterback.

I mean, he was freaking twisting up Denzel Ward last time we saw him out there. I don't see Kelsey's efficiency falling off a cliff, but you know, it is a demanding position. Who knows if you know all the miles, you know, maybe just the final straw that breaks the camel's back type of situation.

Darren Waller apparently has been missing time with this ankle injury that a Raiders came out and said it's not a big deal. I don't know. You miss eight or nine straight practices. It kind of seems like it's not a small deal either. So there's really no one else on this offense. You know, I would expect to be stealing targets from Waller. Great player on his own right to me. The only way he bus is if he comes into year, banged up, unable to be the guy that we know he can't be one healthy.

Number three, George Kettle. Look, only the Vante Adams average more yards per out run than George Kettle last year. He is so dominant and great as a receiver. I think the only reason he's not used more is because he's similarly awesome and dominant as a blocker.

So maybe transition in the trail lands, more of a run first offense, the overall target share pie shrinks and Kettle is actually use more as a block in the scene in the past. We do have Devo Samuel, Brennan, Ioc, functioning as legit high end pass game options in their own right.

George Kettle being a team guy getting paid regardless. Wouldn't be shocking if we see him become the number three pass game option in the Ford Niners offense. Would he be the most overqualified number three.

You know, quote unquote receiver in the league. Absolutely, but the offense is scoring points. I'm sure Kettle and Shanahan won't really care if he falls off a little bit in fancy lamb with TJ Hawkinson. So reports out of camp for saying that he has been golf.

You know, number one pass game option and playing great the entire time with that said we got the Andre Swift to mall Williams, Tyro Williams, Pershot, Perryman. There is a chance that Hawkinson just you know isn't the featured for number one pass game target that we're expecting him to be.

I know the golf Higbee splits from the end of the 2019 season is what everyone's you know hanging their hat on. I will say though, no Higbee if you just look at the years,

Per out run metrics and some of the efficiency stuff actually has been superior than Hawkinson. He was tied for 13th in years, Per out running among 49 qualified tight ends in 2020.

Hawkinson should have too much volume to truly bust, but maybe he can't return that tight and for value because you know 100 targets for the guy, it's going to be tough for him to necessarily be that good if he's in a bottom tier scoring offense.

Tide and five mark Andrews so he actually fell off a little bit last year, it does concern me career low marks and yours per reception, yours per target. I get it if you want to pin those on Lamar Jackson, but Mark Andrews only 3.2 yards after the catch per reception last year 2019 he was at 4.5 and 2018 5.8.

No, there's no more tight end competition in the offense, but Sammy walkins for shot Bateman, you know if they really want to elevate the Ravens passing game to a new level, which seems like the goal may be featuring your tight end as such a high target share isn't the way to do that.

So newfound competition in the passing game combined with Andrews is not being the same monster. Maybe we thought he was the first two years of his career could be how he just doesn't quite return the same fancy value as we're expecting.

What Kyle pits, I think this one, you know, you draft the guy fourth overall, you would like to think NFL coaches have a plan for how to use them. I think the way pits would bust is if they just say, hey, this guy is a tight end, we draft them to be a tight end and right now Hayden Hurst is better, which I don't it just pains me to even say those words out loud, but if we don't get true wide receiver usage out of pits, then it can almost become an overall volume problem again with Julio Jones out of the picture.

I don't know how pits will be anything other than the number two receiver in this offense, but hey, you know, if it just struggles a little bit early, maybe we see Calvin Ridley, you know, flirt with the target total starting with two nobody else in a passing game that could take a step back without Julio Matt Ryan's efficiency over the years certainly has might be tougher Matt Ryan to enable more than one super high end fantasy asset.

Titan 7 Dallas got it it's already happening people, I mean the Zach Ert Dallas Goddard split was predictably terrible last night in the preseason game I'm recording this on Friday, so in the Steelers Eagles game and that shouldn't be a surprise maybe urges not the Eagles by a time to season starts we better hope not if you're still drafting Goddard as a top six top seven tight end, you know, once it became clear,

Erts the real slim shady was back I moved Goddard back down to a borderline Titan one I certainly think he's better than Erts in the year 2021 he was better than Erts in the year 2020 didn't stop Erts from still out targeting him then and potentially now so offenses real life with two great tight ends fantastic.

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