Falling for the Gambler's Fallacy

The Gist

Peach Fish Productions

News, Daily News

4.5 • 3.7K Ratings

🗓️ 18 October 2017

⏱️ 26 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

If the roulette wheel keeps stopping on green, it's bound to stop on red soon, right? It must be time for another round of "Is That Bullshit?" Maria Konnikova returns to debunk our ideas about probability and gambling. Konnikova writes for the New Yorker and is the author of The Confidence Game. In the Spiel, the Russian connection. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	The following podcast contains explicit language.
0:03.4	["Band Warms Up"]
0:07.4	Wednesday, October 18, 2017, from Slate,
0:10.2	it's the gist I'm Mike Pesca.
0:12.7	I was talking to a bunch of smart people today about Trump.
0:16.4	Oh, oh.
0:17.3	Perhaps now it's a good time to reveal how I do what I do.
0:20.8	See, I talk to these people, and then a couple days later,
0:24.1	it shows up on the show.
0:26.0	So the things I'm thinking about right now
0:28.0	might be about the guests I just talked to,
0:30.1	that you're not gonna get for a couple days.
0:32.8	There's like an insight lag.
0:34.3	Wait, why is Mike talking about that now?
0:36.4	Why is Mike talking about an air-cooled overhead valve
0:38.8	45 degree V-Twin engine in the long go to you?
0:41.3	And then it turns out the guys from American Chopper
0:44.0	on the show, you see how this works?
0:45.6	So I was talking to some smart political folk.
0:48.0	You'll find out who I liked them,
0:50.2	and they were laying their insight on me.
0:53.0	And I was thinking in a way, this is what I do, I read, I talk.
	...

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