Fact-Checking the Maduro Raid—and the Art of Fucking Around
The Gist
Mike Pesca
4.4 • 3.6K Ratings
🗓️ 10 January 2026
⏱️ 55 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mike breaks down the U.S. abduction of Nicolas Maduro, arguing that Donald Trump's penchant for exaggeration shouldn't blind us to actual strategic successes. He digs into why media "truth-tracking" often fails to account for real-world military outcomes, using the Fordow strikes and the defeat of ISIS as proof that a leader's bad narration doesn't always mean a failed mission.
Plus... A vault interview with Oxford's Ben Ansell on "FADFO"—the phenomenon of "fucking around and not finding out"—and how modern guardrails allow political radicals to escape the consequences of the chaos they create.
Produced by Corey Wara
Coordinated by Lya Yanne
Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi, it's Saturday. It's the Saturday show, one from the vault and one from the week. |
| 0:08.4 | And early this week, Monday, I talked a lot about Donald Trump, his mindset, what the |
| 0:14.7 | decapitation strike on the Venezuelan regime means. And I do think that we have no plan. I don't think he ever |
| 0:22.8 | thinks about second or third order effects, but I was trying to focus. That's what I like to do, |
| 0:27.6 | by the way, in spiel's when there's a huge item in the news and there's many different slices you |
| 0:33.2 | could take from it. I like to hone in on one that maybe has been under explored. And there's just a |
| 0:38.3 | tendency I see. You'll hear it in the spiel. Just because Donald Trump's a liar doesn't mean he's wrong. But I do have to say, I think he's, if not wrong, I don't see how this plan really goes well. I think I have figured out, and I've talked about this and some of the other appearances I've done this week. |
| 0:54.1 | I talked about it with Chris Saliza. |
| 0:56.2 | That was a pretty good substack live. figured out, and I've talked about this and some of the other appearances I've done this week. |
| 0:56.1 | I talked about it with Chris Saliza. |
| 1:02.3 | That was a pretty good Substack Live that you could check out if you go to Mike Peska.substack.com. But I do think that he thinks that he'll be getting some oil while working with the corrupt |
| 1:08.3 | dictators of Venezuela, who, Delci Rodriguez, who was once the vice president. |
| 1:13.9 | But I've articulated this in a few places. |
| 1:16.6 | I don't see how Delsey Rodriguez corrupt dictatorship who gives Donald Trump what he wants. |
| 1:23.7 | I don't see how that possibly squares with. |
| 1:25.6 | I'm not even talking about anything abstract, but how that possibly squares with what will |
| 1:30.8 | become the pressure to get a real democracy in Venezuela, and not just from Donald Trump's |
| 1:37.3 | perspectives where he doesn't have to follow international law, not just from the human |
| 1:41.8 | rights community, not just from the specific person of |
| 1:45.9 | Maria Carina Machado, but from the constituencies in America who clamored for this change, |
| 1:53.4 | who support Marco Rubio from Marco Rubio himself. |
| 1:57.6 | Again, to go all the way back to the spiel I'm going to give you. It is true. We often criticize |
... |
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