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The Compound and Friends

Exposing The Big Lie About Stock Buybacks (with Michael, Barry, and Ed Yardeni)

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2019

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research, joins Michael Batnick and Barry Ritholtz at The Compound to explain why we're looking at the wrong data all wrong, what the real data is, and what it means for the current narrative surrounding share buybacks. 1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app   Subscribe to the mini podcast on iTunes or Spotify    Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!"   Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here:  http://ritholtzwealth.com/   Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer: https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Live from the Compound. My name is Michael Baddnick. I'm here with Barry Rittholz and Ed Yardenny of Yardenny research.

0:06.0

Bybacks have become the topic that you're not just for Wall Street, but also for Main Street.

0:12.0

Correct.

0:13.0

And one of the things that people use to make arguments is data.

0:16.7

And I was flabbergasted where last week I read in Barons that you said that some of the data

0:21.7

that we're using might not be correct.

0:24.0

What did you mean? How did you find this out?

0:26.0

Well, the Federal Reserve puts out flow of funds data on a quarterly basis.

0:31.0

And is that the Z1? That's the Z1. Okay1 and it's very detailed I really love that data set it's very

0:38.0

been very good at understanding with a little bit of a lag what the financial system is doing and everybody uses the

0:47.0

table that shows who's buying equities and who's issuing equities and what that data has been showing for a few years is that nobody's

0:56.7

buying stock other than corporations buying back their own shares and I've been staring at that for a while

1:05.1

and just something just didn't make sense to me.

1:08.0

Because when you look at the S&P 500 earnings

1:10.6

per share, and then you look at aggregate earnings of the S&P 500 it's not

1:16.4

that big a difference in terms of the growth rate it's about 1% per year from

1:20.8

2011 to 2018.

1:22.9

So if they're buying hundreds of billions

1:25.4

of dollars of their stock back,

1:27.5

why aren't the numbers much bigger?

1:30.0

And I think the answer is, with regards

1:31.6

to the flow of funds data, is that they forgot to include a category called employee stock plans.

...

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