the action network podcast. Are you going to place a bet or what?

What's going on everybody? I am Dave Martinez and welcome back here to the action network series the experts guide to bedding and today

We're talking props props props props props props because everybody loves bedding props

And who better to talk about this with them my two guys Sean Carner the director of all the projections and analytics here at the action network and of course Chris

Raybon focus here on the NFL. How you guys doing today?

I'm a good day. I'm excited to talk some props. All right. That's what's up

That's what's up. So he's the first question I have you and don't take it the wrong way, but Chris

I mean, honestly, what is it that makes you an expert when it comes to props?

So that's been 40 hours a week or probably more like 60 kind of diving into to NFL stats and all sports stats and models and I'm doing this even in the offseason

Well, everyone else is just doing a regular job. So that's kind of what I have to offer just that put in the time it.

No, for sure. And Sean, what about you? I mean, I see you're modeling your projections your rankings. How does that equip you for being an amazing prop better?

Well, to be good at prop betting, you have to have good projection. So similar to Raybon, you know, I'm spending dozens of hours a week projecting analyzing, looking at past performance things like that.

So I'm always going to be finding an edge. I might not win all the time, but in long run, I'm definitely going to come out on top.

All right, fair enough. And I mean, I guess we're just trying to hit about what 54 55% of the time to be honest, but let's get into it. I mean, for someone who is maybe new to betting props, right?

Like can an inexperience better become sharp at props or are you just finding the right people? Let's say in the action network app to tell like how can someone who is green at this become better, Chris?

So the first answer to your question is yes, an inexperience better can become good at betting props because unlike spreads and totals, a prop allows you to focus in a lot more on an individual player or aspect of the game that you're betting.

So if you're betting a spread or a total, it's a lot more about the interplay between the entire teams and lineups and what's going to and what you think is going to happen. And that's a lot easier for some people. It's a lot more macro. But when you're talking about a prop, let's say you're just, you know, a New York Giants fan and every week, you're just only betting on Daniel Jones rushing yards or something like that. And you have a really good idea of when they're going to unleash him when he's going to kind of stay in the pocket.

So you can really kind of focus in on a particular player. It could even be the same player every week. And you can start out that way. And it's usually only a matter of identifying like one trend that a book maybe has not kind of corrected yet in their personal model.

And the biggest reason why I think is possible, Dane is because books and I'm sure Sean could speak to this as well, but sports books. They are spending less time creating player props. So for spreads and totals, the markets for these are massive. I'm talking sometimes you'll get million dollar plus handles on spreads and totals for NFL games, especially. And so the market is going to make those lines very sharp.

And the books are going to spend a lot more time modeling, adjusting their models and just projecting those numbers for the spread and the total for player props. It's a lot more, you know, here's, we're going to take a back to season average and we're going to put it out and we're going to let the market decide.

We're going to put some limits on that. So you're not taking quite as much of a handle as a sports book. So now you're an experience as a better in terms of player props.

It's going to kind of be equaled by the fact that the book isn't spending a ton of time on props compared to a lot of their other bets that they're offering. So that's the big reason why I think yes, even if your experience, you can get an edge, betting player props.

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