Every Quarter’s Beginning is another Quarter’s End
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 31 March 2025
⏱️ 20 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QVjOoi
Monday Dividend Cafe - Q1 Market Review and Implications
In this episode of Monday Dividend Cafe, we conclude the first quarter of the year with a high-level market review. The Dow closed the quarter down by 1.3%, the S&P by 4.6%, and the Nasdaq by 10.4%. We discuss the intra-quarter performance, noting a significant fall for Nasdaq and S&P since mid-February. Consumer discretionary and tech were the hardest-hit sectors. We also explore the historical performance of markets during midterm elections, the impact of tariffs on the economy, and potential future policy developments. Additionally, a detailed explanation of the put-call ratio is provided, offering insights into market sentiment. We close the discussion with a look at housing market expectations and the energy sector's outlook. Celebrating The Bahnsen Group's 10-year anniversary, we preview upcoming content focused on lessons learned over the decade.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:15 Quarterly Market Performance
01:46 Daily Market Movements
03:40 Understanding the Put-Call Ratio
06:29 March Madness Bracket Highlight
07:12 Policy and Economic Insights
12:41 Housing Market and Future Predictions
14:11 Oil Market Analysis
15:35 Tariffs and Global Trade
16:47 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.3 | Hello and welcome to the Monday Dividendin Cafe, also the final dividend cafe of the first quarter, |
| 0:19.9 | the market for Q1, closed out today. March 31, we are done |
| 0:25.3 | a quarter in the books. I'm going to have a lot more detail of quarterly closings, but I'll just |
| 0:32.6 | give it a high level. I didn't do because the market just closed recently. We haven't done the actual |
| 0:37.8 | final mathematical hard closings with dividends and everything. But basically, the Dow was only |
| 0:45.5 | down 540 points on the quarter, 1.3%. But the S&P was down 4.6% on the quarter and the NASDAQ down a more substantial 10.4% on the quarter. |
| 1:00.0 | But more importantly is from the intra-quarter high, which took place right at the middle point of the quarter, |
| 1:07.1 | the NASDAQ is down 13.9% from its mid-February high, and the S&P down 8.7. |
| 1:17.3 | So the S&P fell out of correction territory. It had been down over 10 for a bit. |
| 1:22.4 | But all that to say that you basically had a really strong first half of the quarter and then a really bad |
| 1:29.4 | a second half of the quarter and it was most bad for the riskiest things, let's call it NASDAQ, |
| 1:36.1 | and then a little less bad for the S&P, which is much more NASDAQ-like than Dow-like |
| 1:43.0 | these days because of the top-heavy concentration |
| 1:45.3 | reality. And then the Dow barely down, which is the least NASDAQ. Consumer discretionary and |
| 1:52.3 | tech were the sectors that were down the most, the most tariff consequential, obviously. And so that |
| 1:59.7 | was the story. And the pre-market futures last night and |
| 2:02.8 | then into early this morning were down quite a bit. And the Dow opened down 300 points. And that lasted |
| 2:08.9 | just for a few minutes and almost immediately began its recovery. And a couple hours later went to |
| 2:14.9 | positive territory on the day and stayed there for much of the day |
| 2:18.0 | just right around the break-even point and then rallied in the last two hours of the day. |
... |
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