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Inflation remained quite tame in April despite the tariff shock. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. There's news this morning

that inflation for consumers went up just two-tenths of a percent, March to April, less than

expected. In a year, the Consumer Index is up 2.3 percent, a slight moderation using this

fresh April data. Tariffs have yet to percolate into many prices we pay, but that will be a process.

And while some Wall Street banks are now ratcheting back chances for recession this year,

a sense of unpredictability for policy remains. Economist Lawrence Idell Baker is at the Venerable New Hampshire-based consultancy ITR economics.

Good morning. All right. If things are

higher priced or if indeed consumers and businesses feel uncertain about, you know, which way it goes

moving forward, we may delay purchases that could slow the economy. Some Brandx Wall Street

banks have lowered the risk for recession later this year. You do

this for a living. How are you calculating it? We still do not expect a recession this year. I know

those one Q GDP numbers came in negative, which they like to say puts us halfway to a recession,

but really the key drivers behind that, it was frontloading of imports.

There was a very small negative contribution from the government spending sector.

These are not traditional recession drivers. We still see the consumer as being very well supported.

Wages are still rising at a faster pace than inflation. That means we still have the ability

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