Even After Virginia, Democrats Aren’t Out of This Redistricting Fight
Bulwark Takes
The Bulwark
4.7 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 8 May 2026
⏱️ 18 minutes
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Summary
Sam Stein and Sarah Longwell break down the shocking Virginia Supreme Court decision overturning the state’s new redistricting maps and what it means for the battle for control of the House in 2026. Democrats believed Virginia was their biggest answer to Republican-led mid-cycle gerrymandering in states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee. Sam and Sarah explain why the decision is such a major setback for Democrats, how Republicans are redrawing districts across the South, and whether Democrats can still overcome a growing GOP structural advantage.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hey, everyone. It's me, Sam Stein, I'm here at the Bullock. I'm joined by Sarah Longwell, our publisher. |
| 0:03.9 | We are here to talk about the shock news this morning that the Supreme Court of Virginia has struck down the redistricting law that was passed by voters in Virginia just a short while ago. |
| 0:15.9 | The practical implications in Virginia is that a potential gain of four House seats for Democrats has now been reversed. |
| 0:22.7 | They're going back to those maps that existed prior to the redraw. |
| 0:26.2 | Democrats could still net two seats because of circumstances, but they ain't getting the four |
| 0:31.5 | seats. |
| 0:32.6 | Likely not going to get the two seats. |
| 0:34.7 | It's going to take a pretty strong election year. |
| 0:36.8 | And you got to consider |
| 0:37.9 | it, Sarah, with all the other things happening currently in the South, where Republicans are |
| 0:42.4 | redrawing about four states to eliminate VRA districts. And you are looking at a very bad news |
| 0:50.2 | cycle for House Democrats. But how bad is it? I don't think it's so bad that Democrats aren't |
| 0:58.0 | still favored to take back the House. I mean, I just think that the overall environment is such |
| 1:04.7 | that Democrats are still likely to pick up enough seats to win. It's just more like they've got to really run the table now. |
| 1:13.0 | Like it's not a lot of room for error. |
| 1:17.1 | And, you know, it is really deflating for Democrats who I think, you know, Virginia was just a place |
| 1:26.5 | where Democrats really figured out how to stand up to Trump's kicking off this redistricting fight, right, in Texas. |
| 1:32.9 | And Trump has been from the start, this redistricting has been about the fact that they know they're likely going to lose Congress. |
| 1:40.1 | Trump doesn't want the oversight that comes from a Democratic Congress. He wants to do anything he can to |
| 1:45.4 | avoid that. So they did mid-cycle redistricting, which is very unusual in Texas, which started off |
| 1:50.9 | sort of a chain reaction. So then California passed a referendum saying that they were going to |
| 1:56.2 | redistrict to pick up a couple more Democratic seats. And for a long time, it looked like the whole thing, |
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