Welcome to the Euro Intelligence Podcast. I'm Wolfgang Muncho and with me, Azizan Muncheng and Jack Smith.

Today we would like to talk about Europe's dependence on the United States.

Europe has had many dependencies in its history, most recently on Russia. We have had long dependencies on China.

China is for exports.

Now that we are starting to impose tariffs and sanctions on both countries, our dependence has shifted.

We're still dependent on China for supply change.

That is not going to change quickly and that cannot change quickly because of the time it takes for this to shift. But we have increased our dependence on the United

States, not only for defense, but also as an destination of our export surpluses. Jack, you wrote

about this today. Where do you see the problems? The problems kind of increasingly look like

they're everywhere, to be honest. I think previously

there was this old narrative in Europe that our dependencies were on the US for security and

defense, on Russia for energy, and on China for trade. Now, especially since really kind of in the last

five years or so, what you can see is that that situation is changing. And increasingly

on all three of them, the dependencies are shifting over to the United States. Partly, that's because

of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Partly, that's because of our policies exiting the pandemic.

Partly, that's also because of China's own slow recovery out of the pandemic and the structural shifts that

are taking place in the Chinese economy. Now, the first thing is that when you look at trade

data, so if you look at, say, exports from the euro area in particular, compare to China compared

to the US, what you'll see is that in recent years, exports to China have kind of stalled

and even paired back a bit if you look at at least Chinese customs data. In that same time,

what's happened is that exports to the United States have increased quite handily. So I think

I was writing about this this morning from about February of 2021 to November of 2023, they increased by somewhere in the

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