Episode 99: Are we winning?
Ask Haviv Anything
Haviv Rettig Gur
4.9 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 18 March 2026
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The rules of engagement just shattered. From the death of Ali Khamenei to the elimination of wartime mastermind Ali Larijani, Iran’s leadership hasn't just been eroded—it’s been erased. As the regime retreats into a fractured "mosaic" of local commanders and a collapsing barter economy, the US-Israeli coalition is pivoting to a final, surgical strike on the regime’s last lifeline: its internal energy grid. Can a regime built on the theology of "resistance" survive when it can no longer keep the lights on? We break down the apparent strategic shift from a war of missiles to a war of endurance.
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This episode's sponsor asked to remain anonymous and dedicated the episode to honoring the memory of all those we have lost in the massacres of October 7 and in the wars and terror attacks that followed and continue to this day, including the brave American servicemen and women who have given their lives in the current war with Iran. May we remember them and may their memory be a blessing.
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Musical intro by Adam Ben Amitai.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi, everybody. Welcome to Ask Kaviv Anything. It's day 18 of the war with Iran, and the war has reached a pivot, a new direction. Everything is changing. We've had the war up until now that we have basically managed to grasp and understand certain successes, certain remarkable achievements, where do the Iranian people stand, what did the regime remains, these are things that we have a fairly good grasp of. |
| 0:30.5 | And now the battlefield is changing in fundamental ways. Something has shifted in the strategy of the Israelis, of the Americans, and of the Iranians, |
| 0:38.9 | or will be shifting soon, we expect. The balance of power is changing. And the fundamental question |
| 0:44.9 | is no longer just what happens next, what's the next target, who's the next assassination. |
| 0:49.2 | It goes deeper than that. Now that we're seeing this shift, we're beginning to understand what the actual |
| 0:55.6 | military planners had in mind when they went to this war from the Israeli and American sides. |
| 1:00.7 | And just as importantly, we can now seriously tackle the questions, can the U.S. |
| 1:06.1 | Israel Coalition win this? Can the Iranian regime survive this? Are those mutually exclusive? What's going on? |
| 1:13.6 | Before we get into it, I want to tell you that this episode is sponsored by a sponsor who asked to remain |
| 1:18.4 | anonymous and dedicated the episode to honoring the memory of all of those we lost in the massacres |
| 1:24.5 | of October 7 and all those we have lost in war and in terror attacks |
| 1:28.2 | that followed and continue to this day, including especially the brave American servicemen and |
| 1:34.7 | women who have given their lives in the current war with Iran. |
| 1:38.8 | We remember them, and may their memory be a blessing. |
| 1:42.8 | I would like to also invite you to join our Patreon community. |
| 1:46.3 | It helps us keep the lights on. |
| 1:48.2 | And if you want to ask the questions that guide the topics we choose to talk about, |
| 1:52.5 | that's where we have that conversation. |
| 1:55.0 | There are also great discussion forums where I and listeners discuss the episodes |
| 1:59.1 | and general news and resources that we all share throughout the day. |
| 2:04.2 | And you get to be part of our monthly live streams where I answer your questions live. |
| 2:08.8 | You can join us at www. patreon.com slash ask Javiv anything. |
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