Episode 771: Election Predictions with Seth Keshel
Newt's World
Gingrich 360
4.6 • 6.4K Ratings
🗓️ 5 November 2024
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Newt talks with pollster Seth Keshel, who provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming election. Keshel discusses his unique approach to studying polling data, focusing on swing states, low propensity voters, and early voting trends. He shares insights from his military intelligence background and how it aids his understanding of complex data. Kessel predicts significant Republican gains in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, attributing shifts to voter registration trends and demographic changes. He also highlights the impact of urban and suburban voting patterns, particularly in states like Texas and Nevada. Keshel's analysis suggests a strong performance for Trump, potentially leading to a decisive victory. They conclude with a discussion on the importance of voter turnout and the role of media narratives in shaping election outcomes.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | On this episode of Nutes World, as election day nears, I wanted to have someone on who has taken a unique look at polling data in this election cycle. |
| 0:13.9 | He's been studying the swing states and methodically going through county by county to understand how each state will perform. |
| 0:21.7 | He's been looking at low propensity voters, independent voters, and has analyzed early vote. |
| 0:27.7 | He is one of the most knowledgeable pollsters on the upcoming election, and he approaches it |
| 0:33.1 | from a very unique perspective. |
| 0:36.0 | So I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, |
| 0:38.5 | Polster Seth Keschel. |
| 0:40.1 | He is on telegram and on substack. |
| 0:42.7 | His site is Captain Kay's Corner. |
| 0:58.4 | Seth, welcome, and thank you for joining me on Nutzworld. |
| 1:00.4 | Well, thank you so much, Mr. Speaker. |
| 1:02.2 | It's like we were talking about before I jumped on. |
| 1:06.2 | It's an honor to get to collaborate with you, especially as we approach a very important day. |
| 1:12.5 | I have to ask you, how did your military intelligence background help you as you thought about the election polling business? |
| 1:14.7 | I've always been a numbers guy. |
| 1:16.4 | I'm a baseball guy at heart. |
| 1:18.2 | God did not give me the ability to be a great athlete, but he gave me the mind and appreciate |
| 1:22.0 | the numbers. |
| 1:23.1 | And I was a baseball analyst in college at Ole Miss and wound up joining Army RTC following the family tradition in the military. |
| 1:30.8 | It wound up as an Army intelligence officer, tactical level, never went beyond the rank of captain, just served six years. |
| 1:36.3 | And my job requirements were to understand lots of data points, lots of events over a massive expanse. |
| 1:42.1 | So we're talking about an area of the size of Georgia and Western Afghanistan. And to be able to boil that down into digestible pieces of information to give |
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