If and when this bill passes, I'm assuming it will pass at some point, what growth rate can we expect for the economy in the second half of the year?

I hear talk of 3% growth, maybe more. What say you?

Right. I say that if you look at the Council of Economic Advisors' Chairman Steve Myron's modeling of what happens if we pass this tax bill,

then conservatively you're looking at very steady 3% growth going forward.

If you add 3% to the 1.8% that's in the Congressional Budget Office forecast,

then that means that over 10 years you get 4 trillion more revenue from 3% growth than the current CBO forecasts.

And so what that means is that this tax bill basically pays for itself if we get 3% growth.

I think we're going to get more than 3% growth because something you've covered a lot,

Stu, is that the AI productivity revolution is underway.

Firms are getting more and more productive

because AI is helping their workers be more productive.

And there's a scholar at Stanford, Eric Brynielsen,

who has a study out that suggests that that could

increase productivity growth by one and a half, even to 2% a year.

If we get that, then you're looking at 4% growth,

which I think is an upside that's completely possible

and so yeah I think that the 1.8% CBO score is very very conservative and so fiscal hawks

should be ambitious because they understand that look last time we said we get 3% growth we did

this time we're saying it and we've got like some extra juice because of

AI. So I'm very comfortable with three. Is this the argument that Speaker Johnson is applying to

the deficit hawks? Look, the deficit will be taken care of by 3, 4% growth just down the road.

That's Speaker Johnson's arguing, right?

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