I don't spend a lot of time on the voter polling and how to understand that kind of stuff.

Personally, I have been kind of forced to think about it a little bit when we come to this issue and I feel like people really have a very...

They're models for thinking about how people answer these

questions are just really hard to get my head around, right? I mean on one hand we know that a lot of

it is just like expressive, right? if you don't like the president you say

the economy is bad if you like the president you say it's good so like if Trump is

elected like the very next day Republican support for the economy was will go through the roof

even though obviously nothing has changed and then when we start talking about okay

let's put aside these things that aren't just related to someone telling you

about their personal situation.

They're reading stuff or they don't like the war maybe and so they also say they don't like

the economy or whatever right?

If we get rid of that stuff and and we say, okay, what about their own personal

situation? How is that driving them? If you actually look at individuals and follow them over

time, their personal circumstances are up and down and up and down.

So when you say, hey, like, the median wage is gone up.

Okay, that's cool, like, but the person who was earning the median wage last year is not the same

person who's earning the median wage this year people move up and down the

distribution so even in good years you're gonna see 40% plus of people, their incomes are going to go down because they

moved around in the income distribution.

So if you're actually thinking about individuals, it should be the case that even in like a great economy a large minority of people are

going to be having a bad time relative to the year before. They may have lost a job, their income may have gone down for any

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