Hello and welcome to episode 306 of the official established the run dot com podcast.

My name is Adam Levittent.

I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and we're coming off of a tail outcome kind of

week.

Yes that's right sometimes wild things happen in NFL games and you know it's just a one

off like a fluke thing that happens in these really really small samples of one NFL slate.

But sometimes sometimes maybe just maybe we can see it coming and in today's climate

of DFS where there are a ton of strong DFS players and most people are building through

projections rather than their gut well maybe there's an edge there that we can find.

So two spots in week 14 actually made me think about this.

The first was the bills game plan like we know the bucks have the NFL's best rush defense

been that way for I don't know last two or three years.

It's so dominant that even normally reasonably balanced teams don't even try to run like

the neutral situation pass rate against the bucks is just ridiculously massive.

We also know that the bills have employed wild game plans before wildly pass heavy game

plans before like they were multiple times last season when they didn't even try to run

like they go through entire games with 50 Josh Allen dropbacks and five running back carries.

So in this spot against the bucks in ideal weather with Tom Brady playing a ridiculously

high level on the other side creating spots where they can bills can get behind.

I mean you can see where one of these insane game plans for the bills where they end up

calling a pass on 95% of their plays you can see how that happens now we can't project

that right like if you went to the projections on ETR obviously we can't project that we

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