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Establish The Run Fantasy Football

Episode 255: Levitan's Solo Pod -- Week 4 Recap

Establish The Run Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Sports, Sports

4.71.5K Ratings

🗓️ 5 October 2021

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Adam Levitan recaps Week 4. How do we evaluate good/bad plays in hindsight? And the PSM has a monster week.


Show Notes

In this episode, we discuss:

  • Were the WR plays #good?
  • Tournament recap
  • Why isn't the PSM on the site?
  • Perverted Listener Questions

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Links mentioned in the episode:

  1. Silva's Matchups Column - https://establishtherun.com/in-season-package/matchups/
  2. ETR's DFS Projections  - https://establishtherun.com/draftkings-projections/
  3. Full List of In-Season Content  - https://establishtherun.com/in-season-package/
  4. Subscriber-Only Discord Instructions - https://establishtherun.com/my-account/discord/
  5. Adam Levitan's Player Props - https://establishtherun.com/category/levitan-player-props/

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Timestamps:
The Week Four Narrative (0:25) | Adam’s Cash Game Review (1:08) | Adam’s GPP Review (4:24) | Listener Questions (7:50)

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hello and welcome to episode 255 of the official establish the run dot com podcast.

0:22.6

My name is Adam Levittan.

0:23.7

I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and we are coming off of an empty volume kind

0:29.7

of week.

0:30.7

Yes, that's right.

0:32.0

I got my teeth kicked through the back of my skull again in week four and I certainly

0:36.4

didn't play great, but I do believe that wide receiver targets are a skill they are

0:41.6

earned.

0:42.6

And so one of the best ways I think to evaluate wide receiver plays is target share aka at

0:48.0

what rate the quarterback targeted a wide receiver versus teammates and also targets

0:53.0

per route run.

0:54.4

And so in today's NFL where running back workloads are so incredibly fragile and committee

1:01.0

based and throw rates continue to increase overall, I've been leaning toward four wide

1:06.6

receiver builds when it makes sense.

1:08.9

And I thought week four was one where you could have gone either way.

1:12.6

I thought the unique roles of that Devante Adams and Cooper cup were worth looking at

1:19.2

in four wide receiver builds.

1:20.8

Both have very realistic shots to finish the year with a 30 plus percent target share

1:25.2

from very good quarterbacks.

1:26.6

And by the way, 30 percent is just an absolute massive number.

1:29.4

So if we evaluate week four, well, Cooper cup ran 46 routes against the Cardinals saw

1:35.3

13 targets for a 31 percent share at 7800.

...

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