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In England, China, the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence now, they would go to war against Taiwan.

Even though they fully understand that that would have major negative economic consequences for Beijing.

They understand that, but they would go to war anyway.

Here, Ashley Tellas clinically explains how any explicit Taiwan move towards independence could inexorably draw China

and the United States in the direct conflict and possibly all out war.

If China faces the prospect of a Taiwan that appears to be going independent, China will do its best to suppress Taiwanese military capabilities

in order to prevent such an outcome from happening, while it simultaneously works to limit the United States

from being able to come to Taiwan's defense. And the Chinese tools that will be used in that scenario

will be everything from its land-based ballistic missiles targeting American carriers,

its land-based ballistic missiles targeting American forward bases,

as well as all its conventional military instruments to attack US power projection forces

that would be moving to Taiwan's aid.

What is the United States to do in such circumstances?

It has one of three choices. One is it can decide that the business of attempting to protect Taiwan has simply become

too dangerous operationally. And so it changes its political objectives.

That is, it seems a Taiwan to China. The second thing it could do would be to simply aim to defeat Chinese war fighting capabilities

...