Episode 201: How to Beat Season-Long NFL Props
Establish The Run Fantasy Football
Fantasy Football
4.7 • 1.5K Ratings
🗓️ 30 June 2021
⏱️ 30 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Episode Summary
The first full-season props for 2021 are up. Adam Levitan sits down with ETR's Mike Leone and Anthony Amico to discuss what to look for and how to bet this market sharpy.
Show Notes
In this episode, we discuss:
- Leone maybe getting some sun
- Projections and how they intersect with props
- #UndersClub
- Takes on props currently available
Links mentioned in the episode:
- Silva’s Top 150 - https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-fantasy-football-top-150/
- ETR’s Underdog Best Ball Top 300 Rankings - https://establishtherun.com/etrs-top-300-for-underdogfantasy/
- 2021 Rankings Homepage - https://establishtherun.com/2021-draft-kit-rankings-homepage/
- Subscriber-Only Discord Instructions - https://establishtherun.com/my-account/discord/
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- Follow ETR on Twitter - https://twitter.com/EstablishTheRun
- Follow Adam on Twitter - https://twitter.com/adamlevitan
- Follow Evan on Twitter - https://twitter.com/evansilva
- Follow Anthony Amico on Twitter - https://twitter.com/amicsta
Timestamps:
How to project for Player Props (3:25) | Projections vs Rankings (7:12) | Line shopping for best lines (12:10) | Why lean unders (16:12) | T.Y. Hilton under (18:42) | Rondale Moore over (20:40) | Clyde Edwards-Helaire over (23:55) | Baker Mayfield over (24:52) | Running Back under lines (27:10)
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to episode 201 of the official established the run.com podcast. |
| 0:22.6 | My name is Adam Levittan and today today we are going to talk about a topic near and |
| 0:27.9 | dear to my heart, player props for that. I am joined by two men deep in the projection |
| 0:34.5 | streets, deep in the spreadsheet, Virginia streets, deep in the prop streets is a legend |
| 0:40.0 | himself, Michael Leoni, and it is the newest member of our team here, Anthony Amico, |
| 0:45.6 | star with Leoni. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. Just got back from a golf trip where I tried |
| 0:51.5 | to soak up some sun. So I'd be a little bit less translucent for this version of the podcast. |
| 0:57.1 | If you're watching the video, I don't know if that worked out, but I put it, I put it in my best |
| 1:01.5 | effort. Yeah, I got no sunscreen, just, just full of zero sunscreen. No, I'm a sunscreen, dude, |
| 1:08.7 | I am a sunscreen like five kind of sunscreen wearer. Amico, good afternoon. How are you, buddy? |
| 1:16.4 | Doing great, man. Doing great. We started football practice at the local high school. So I'm |
| 1:22.0 | soaking up more sun probably than Michael. I got to be the most hand spreadsheets guy on the team. |
| 1:27.2 | That's the goal. Yeah, I got to ask you what, so you coach the local high school, you obviously don't |
| 1:32.0 | have a kid in the high school or then you're just like, you like to coach, you volunteer or whatever, |
| 1:35.3 | or you they pay you a little bit and you just love football so you coach them. Yeah, they pay me, |
| 1:39.8 | I mean, it's the school that I teach at. So it's like a good thing. Good times. What's what position |
| 1:45.4 | or what, what is your specialty? Receivers, debacks, special teams, we're just, we're grinding. |
| 1:52.2 | Does your, does your offense throw a lot or in my high school, my, their throw rate was like |
| 1:56.5 | literally 2% in my high school. Well, we just graduated like the best quarterback we've ever had, |
| 2:02.8 | probably. So we were throwing a lot last year. This year probably be back to like 85% run for the |
| 2:07.5 | brand. Wow. Wow. Congrats on the sex with the quarterback. Okay. Anyways, on today's show, |
| 2:14.0 | we're going to talk specifically, specifically about season long props for NFL normally when we |
... |
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