Good morning and welcome to the Increase Re Impact Podcast. I'm Justin Sua, episode 2089.

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is what happens when someone takes random results and forces a story to make themselves look right.

Imagine a cowboy firing wildly at the side of a barn and when he finishes he walks up to the

bullet holes finds the tightest cluster tightest cluster and he paints a bullseye around them

and just like that he's the best shot in town or at least that's what he wants everyone to believe

coaches and leaders tend to do this all the

time, making bold predictions about how something's going to turn out, whether it be the season,

a player, or a strategy, and when something happens to align with their expectations, whether it's

by skill, luck, or randomness, they highlight it as proof that they were right,

and they ignore all the times they were wrong. And what this ends up doing is that it creates

a false confidence and selective memory leading to poor decision-making and being over-confident

with their ability to what they think is predicting the future.

Now, to guard against this, I would invite you to consider using a prediction log.

Before a season, a game or a decision you have to make, write down what you expect to happen.

Why you believe it will happen and how confident you are in percentage terms that it will happen.

For example, you might say, I'm 80% sure this player is going to be a breakout star this season.

Then when the season's over or the game's over or at a certain set point, compare what you wrote down to what actually really happened.

Were you wrong?

Were you right?

Were you right for the reasons you thought?

Or was something else at play?

Great leaders don't just seek confirmation. They seek

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