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Episode 188: Nate Silver

Longform

Longform

Education, Arts, Books, News

4.71.9K Ratings

🗓️ 13 April 2016

⏱️ 57 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the author of The Signal and the Noise. “I know in a perfectly rational world, if you make an 80/20 prediction, people should know that not only will this prediction not be right all the time, but you did something wrong if it’s never wrong. The 20% underdog should come through sometimes. People in sports understand that sometimes a 15 seed beats a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s much harder to explain to people in politics.” Thanks to MailChimp, Bombas, Squarespace, and Trunk Club for sponsoring this week's episode. Show Notes: @NateSilver538 fivethirtyeight.com Silver on Longform [2:00] FiveThirtyEight Podcasts [2:00] "Why The Dean Scream Sounded So Different On TV" (Jody Avirgan, Clare Malone • FiveThirtyEight) [10:00] The Burrito Bracket [12:00] Silver’s Daily Kos Archive [19:00] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t (Penguin Books • 2012) [19:00] "FiveThirtyEight’s 2012 Forecast" (New York Times • Nov 2012) [45:00] "Donald Trump Is the World’s Greatest Troll" (FiveThirtyEight • Jul 2015) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Support for this show comes from Krakan.

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Krypto is like the financial system, but different.

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It doesn't care where you come from, what you look like, your credit score,

0:11.0

or your outrageous food delivery habits.

0:13.7

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0:18.4

Krakhan, see what crypto can be.

0:21.3

Don't invest unless you're prepared to lose all the money you invest.

0:25.0

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The psychology aspect and medication is an all in one solution.

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0:50.0

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1:00.0

Hey it's Max and it's a cold rainy day in New York. I have a long walk to the subway and I don't really like umbrellas for some reason I have a thing against umbrellas. So I had this long walk in the cold, damp rain today and my whole

1:17.2

body feels kind of cold. I got the shivers, I got a warm cup of coffee, I'm trying

1:20.2

to heat up, but I'll tell you what feels great.

1:22.6

My feet.

1:23.6

And that's because I was wearing Bambus socks today.

1:26.5

Bambus is a new kind of sock company.

1:28.4

They are making fantastic socks.

1:30.4

They will keep you warm when it is cold and they will keep you cool when it's warm. They've got this long staple cotton

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