Ep89 Viral Impacts Explained - The PANDA Pandemic Data & Analytics Group.
The Fat Emperor Podcast
ivor cummins
4.8 • 766 Ratings
🗓️ 16 July 2020
⏱️ 90 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Deep-dive on the real impacts of this viral issue across the globe, with a special focus on how the cost-benefit of suppression measures is destroying middle-income countries like Africa. Have we lost the plot in trying to stop the unstoppable? Is the cost-benefit horrifically in the wrong direction?
Will the middle-income countries suffer enormously and pointlessly, from our Western notions of holding back the tide?
Nick Hudson and Peter Castleden of PANDA group answer all...!
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The recently published PANDA Analysis: https://www.pandata.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Exploring-inter-country-variation.pdf
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | If you were to look at one data set in conclusion or just one graph for a layperson, what is the easiest thing to just look at, to digest and to see what has actually happened here? The scatter plot that shows severity of lockdown and impacts of lockdown. It's just like someone took a paintbrush and went, because it's just spots everywhere. |
| 0:21.9 | There's no pattern. |
| 0:27.0 | Welcome to the Fat Emperor podcast. |
| 0:29.1 | I'm your host, Iber Cummins. |
| 0:34.2 | Today we're going to have an excellent conversation with Nick Hudson and Peter Castleton, |
| 0:39.4 | who are experts in economics and in actuarial science, and they're operating out of South Africa, which is pretty heavily locked down. So great to meet you guys, first |
| 0:44.6 | time online. Great to be with you, Iva. Yeah, thanks, Iva. Excellent. And you know what, |
| 0:52.5 | maybe a very brief bio or what you guys generally do and the organization |
| 0:58.1 | you're involved in that's dealing with pandemic issues from each of you? We're both members of |
| 1:04.6 | Panda, which stands for Pandemics data analysis. It was an impromptu organization set up in response to |
| 1:11.6 | concerned individuals, just looking at the situation in South Africa, the emerging |
| 1:17.3 | lockdown, which then was sustained way beyond anybody's expectations, very draconian lockdown. |
| 1:25.1 | And we formed this group. We have now, well, upwards of 30 members, |
| 1:30.3 | various specialists in data science, actuarial science, so forth, economics. And we started analyzing |
| 1:38.3 | the epidemic in South Africa and its impact and being activists for the end of lockdown, which we think was an extremely |
| 1:45.5 | poor policy decision and which is still being sustained a hundred days later. And Peter, |
| 1:51.8 | your particular specialty as part of this group? Well, Nick and I found each other because we were |
| 1:57.6 | both independently asking questions from the data of why |
| 2:01.2 | on earth is South Africa following the routes it's going. And my background is in life insurance. |
| 2:07.9 | And I was one of the first parts of my job is to figure out what an earth is going to happen |
| 2:13.9 | to my life insurance business if everyone starts dying. |
| 2:20.1 | I mean, it's quite an important question. |
... |
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