This is Trend Following Radio, where great thinking comes alive.

Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, bestselling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings.

I am your host, Michael Covel.

Not filtered, raw, honest.

That's my passion.

I love Richard Feynman.

One of the great physicist ever involved in the Manhattan Project, but an absolute

brilliance at taking the complicated and reducing to simple.

Don't mistake simple for lack of sophistication.

Feynman was so good at explaining the scientific method. And I want to quote from him,

a passage that I put in my newest edition of Trendfiling. This is fabulous, fabulous insight into the scientific method.

In general, we look for a new law by the following process.

First, we guess it.

And the audience laughs.

No, no, don't laugh.

That's really true.

Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what if, if this is right, if this law,

we guess is right, to see what it would imply. And then we compare the computation results to nature,

or we say compare to experiment or experience, compare it directly with observations to see if it works.

If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong. And that simple

statement is the key to science. It doesn't make any difference how beautiful your guess is.

It doesn't matter how smart you are, who made the guess, or what the name is. If it disagrees

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