Ep. 367: What if AI Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This?

Deep Questions with Cal Newport

Cal Newport

Technology, Self-improvement, Education

4.8 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 25 August 2025

⏱️ 97 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In recent years, it’s been hard not to react to the possibilities of generative AI without a mixture of euphoria or dread. But after OpenAI’s lackluster GPT-5 launch, a new, almost heretical-seeming question has emerged: what if progress on AI is stalled well short of the wild predictions we were promised? In today’s episode, Cal draws from reporting on his recent New Yorker article to go deep into this question. What is going on with AI? How did we get here? What does it mean for our personal quest to live deeper lives? He then answers listener questions and ends by discussing his recent brush with literary acclaim.

Transcript

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0:00.0	In the year since ChatGPT's astonishing launch, it's been hard not to get swept up in feelings of euphoria or dread about the looming impacts of this new type of artificial intelligence.
0:12.6	But in recent weeks, this vibe seems to be shifting.
0:17.3	Both the media and technologists no longer seem so certain that everything is about to change.
0:24.3	Now, how is this possible?
0:25.5	What went wrong?
0:27.5	What should we really expect from this tech in the next few years?
0:31.7	I'm Cal Newport, and this is Deep Questions.
0:35.7	Today's episode, What if AI doesn't get much better than this?
0:53.2	Part one, the week we woke up. Part 1. The Week We Woke Up.
1:00.6	Dario, you've said that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10 to 20 percent. How soon might that happen? Well, first of all, thanks for
1:16.8	having me on the show. But just to back up a little bit, you know, I've been building AI for over a
1:22.3	decade. And I think maybe the most salient feature of the technology and what is driving all of this
1:27.3	is how fast the technology is getting better.ient feature of the technology, and what is driving all of this,
1:29.9	is how fast the technology is getting better.
1:35.1	A couple of years ago, you could say that AI models were maybe as good as a smart high school student.
1:35.8	I would say that now they're as good as a smart college student and sort of reaching past
1:40.2	that.
1:40.8	I really worry, particularly at the entry level, that the AI models are,
1:45.3	you know, very much at the center of what, what an entry level human worker would do.
1:51.5	That was Dario Amadeh talking to CNN's Anderson Cooper. Now, Dario is the CEO of the AI company
1:59.0	Anthropic. And if you want to know why we have become so worked up about generative AI, a big part of this answer is that tech CEOs like Amadeh have been saying astonishing claims like the one we just heard.
2:15.8	Remember what he just said there.
	...

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