This is Trend Following Radio, where great thinking comes alive.

Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, best-selling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings.

I am your host, Michael Covell, not filtered, raw, honest.

That's my passion.

My first monologue for the new year, my first monologue for 2015, and I can't help but think of

Willy Wonka, because as we all know, there's no earthly way of knowing which direction we are going,

there's no knowing where we're rowing or which way

the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing.

So the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell aglowing? Is the grizzly reaper mowing?

Yes, the danger must be growing. For the rowers keep on rowing, and they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing.

Well, there you have it.

Willy Wonka completely outlining

behavioral economics and proper trading, proper investing,

all in a film about candy.

I guess I should stop the podcast now, because we all get it.

But I just love, I just love that excerpt.

It sets up nicely for where I want to go today.

First things first, I would like to quote from

John Husman's recent piece. Now I've seen this before, but John did the work, so I'll just read it.

In the 1950s, Stanford psychologist Leon Fessinger developed the theory of cognitive dissonance,

describing the psychological conflict that results from holding two opposing beliefs or attitudes at the same time.

When subjects were asked to convey or act on the information that they knew was untrue,

...