Ep. 225: Thomas Gilovich Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

Michael Covel

Business, Investing

4.6 • 732 Ratings

🗓️ 2 April 2014

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

My guest today is Thomas Gilovich, an American psychologist who is the Irene Blecker Rosenfeld Professor of Psychology at Cornell University. He has conducted research in social psychology, decision making, behavioral economics, and has written popular books on these subjects.

The topic is behavioral economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

How his world dovetailed into money and markets
Basketball, streak shooting, and the "hot hand"
Randomness and the clustering illusion
The missing Malaysian Airlines flight and probability
The reluctance to accept a probabilistic view of the world
Politics, predictions, and probabilities
People who see the world in black and white
Drawing conclusions from incomplete and unrepresentative evidence, and how to avoid that folly
The position of the devil's advocate, and the importance of that role
Gilovich's response to the media's talking heads, and their often black and white opinions
Behavioral economics vs. traditional economics
When people do the wrong thing because the public demands it
Bill James and the closer
Instinct vs. considered judgment and test taking
Irrationality in financial markets and bubbles
Loss aversion
Why you don't need to be better than the market

Jump in!

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I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms:
Twitter: @covel
Facebook: @trendfollowing
LinkedIn: @covel
Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Trend Following Radio, where great thinking comes alive.
0:10.9	Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, bestselling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings.
0:21.1	I am your host, Michael Covel.
0:24.0	Not filtered, raw, honest.
0:27.4	That's my passion.
0:32.9	Today on the show I have Tom Jilovich.
0:35.6	Tom is a professor of psychology at Cornell.
0:39.1	Tom is an expert in behavioral economics, decision making. He gets right into it.
0:47.0	Many of his peers are the names that we all know from this field, Daniel Kahneman for one.
0:53.8	A very interesting conversation, just a different perspective.
0:58.0	I mean, it's a similar perspective to my world.
1:00.2	That's why I wanted to have Tom on.
1:01.4	But just always nice for me to have the chance to learn from someone who's just, they've got their angle.
1:08.6	They've got their perspective.
1:10.1	I love it.
1:11.6	I hope you enjoy.
1:19.4	So listen, here's where I want to jump in.
1:21.9	Professor of Psychology.
1:23.6	When did you first have that moment where you're like, hold on, my world has, for some aspects
1:30.8	of your world, has now dovetailed into money and markets.
1:35.7	When did that first hit you?
1:38.0	Oh, I wasn't expecting such a difficult question, right?
	...

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